February 16 2024

Friday Morning Update 

It seems like the Atmospheric Memory repeat has more in common with that dual snow week in January. The second snow event for us this week also appears to be ramping up to overachieve. This is in part due to a stronger system with the assist of colder air and the overnight hours to help maximize the potential for stickage and accumulation. 

A Winter Weather Advisory was added to metro Baltimore into Southern Maryland. A Winter Storm Watch remains in place for the northern suburbs to the mountains and southern Pennsylvania. This is for the expectation of higher snow amounts.

Timing for the bulk of the event will be starting close to midnight from west to east. Expect heavy snow overnight with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, then mostly ending close to 7 AM. Some showers may remain later into the morning. 

Central areas expect 2 to 4 inches, with the potential to burst higher. More snow is possible in the colder suburbs to the west and north. Temperatures making a dry snow may help fluff up the totals. See the snow maps below.

Winter Weather Alerts

Notes From NWS:

Winter Weather Advisory Region: 

* WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with localized totals up to 5 inches possible.

Winter Storm Watch Region:

* WHAT…Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are likely with up to 6 inches possible.

Winter Storm Warning Region:

* WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches.

Morning Temperatures

It will turn colder tonight!

Morning Surface Weather

Strong winds this morning have prompted wind warnings on area bridges. Gusts up to 30 mph.

The expected snow is still one thousand miles away. This ‘Clipper’ is a fast-moving storm that will reach us tonight and depart tomorrow morning. It will rapidly strengthen on the upper-level winds and peak as it passes our region overnight. This burst of snow now appears it may overachieve, which is why snow totals have increased, and I am leaving the top end open for more.

Afternoon Temperatures

Storm Forecast: 

ECMWF Model 7 PM Fri to 7 PM Saturday 

Snapshot Overnight

The heaviest snow will fall between 2 AM and 6 AM. Snowfall rates maybe 1 to 2 inches per hour in cells and bands.

See the local maps below.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY February 16

Sunrise at 6:58 AM

Sunset at 5:44 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  27ºF

Record 5ºF in 1905; 2015

Normal High in Baltimore: 47ºF

Record 75ºF 1954

SEASONAL SNOW at BWI

9.1 inches

Recent Snow Reports

February 13 Snow Report Maps

January 19 Recap

Click here for the maps and full report

Jan 16 Snow Report

Click here or the map to see: The Snow Report Ending Jan 16

SATURDAY SNOW

Temperatures will be dropping, with the freezing line expected to reach near Annapolis. This will allow for more stickage and accumulation in those areas south of I-95.

Radar Simulation: NAM 3 Km Midnight to Noon

Snapshots

Midnight 

Temperatures 

7 AM

Snow will exit the coast, but the upper-level energy may keep snow showers and flurries inland for a few extra hours. 

Temperatures 

11 AM

Snow should be coming to an end.

Afternoon Temperatures 

The daylight will help with melting on the roads.. but as it stays near freezing inland, expect icy spots in the shade and a quick refreeze in the evening. 

Potential Snowfall Maps

My Call For Snowfall

Computer Models

NAM 3 Km

European Model 

GFS Model

7 Day Outlook

The main event will be Saturday Morning, then quiet as we head into next week. 

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Explore More

Maryland Snow Climate History And Other Winter Pages

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

RECENT Winter Outlook Reports:

My Winter Outlook: More Snow

Faith in the Flakes Gear

El Niño Winter Updates

Late November: Warm Water Shifts West In Pacific Could Mean More Snow For Eastern US

Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track

El Niño Advisory

The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.

Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.

NOAA’s Winter Outlook 2024

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF