Thursday Afternoon Update February 15
The good news is that the data on this next weather event has been pretty consistent. It also helps that we have had colder days and freezing temps at night, plus the timeline overnight in the dark hours will help make a solid expectation for snow.
The quick call is for snow to start close to midnight Friday night and wind down in the morning within an hour or so after sunrise.
Snow may start sticking right away, or within an hour in the warmer urban and bay locations. Moderate to heavy snow will pick up in a hurry and last for a few hours.
I am seeing a general consensus of 2 to 3 inches of snow for most of our region. Some higher spots may reach 4 or more near and north of the Pennsylvania line. Some spots in Southern Maryland where temps may struggle to drop cold enough could be closer to 1 inch.
The high mountains in Western Maryland may get 6 to 10 inches.
See the maps below.
The closest pass of Low Pressure and the heaviest snow may fall between 2 AM and 6 AM.
I need to emphasize that Central Maryland and Southern Pennsylvania have not issued alerts YET, but I expect these areas will get a Winter Weather Advisory.
The current Winter Weather Advisory for Kent and Queen Anne’s County was issued by their local NWS Office in Mount Holly, NJ.
A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the high mountains of western Maryland, where more snow is expected.
As expected, there is some discrepancy. I would still expect a range of 1 to 4 inches across much of the region.
I will post my call for snowfall map in my next report.
This seems to be the lowest call and might have initialized poorly. It’s the wildcard for now.
Click here for the maps and full report
Click here or the map to see: The Snow Report Ending Jan 16
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.
Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.
Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
