January 19 2024

Friday Morning Update

Here we are on our snow day! It arrived as expected between 3 and 5 AM. There have been rates of 1/2 inch of snow per hour in moderate bands… and there are more of those on the way. Schools have already closed or gone virtual. But for anyone that has to travel, it will be difficult at best. Many accidents and road closures have occurred already. It will get worse and remain troublesome all day!

In my last few reports I was focusing on a Meso-Low to develop near the coast today. This would enhance the snow while extending the duration longer. That appears to be the case as the primary driving force that will keep the snow falling all day, ending by evening.

As a result, the Winter Storm Warning has been expanded even farther west than I suggested last night. Most of Central Maryland is now included with storm totals of up to 5 inches.

Saturday will feature strong cold winds on the fresh snowpack. While snow will continue in the mountains and a few flurries may reach into metro areas, the Ravens Playoff Game will be WINDY AND COLD. I am going with my son, and we will be wearing our snowboarding gear (minus the helmets) to try and keep warm. See the numbers below.

I will lead with my Final Call for Snowfall, which I posted last night, plus the Winter Storm Warning. Then, the relevant weather maps, NWS Snowfall Maps, and Computer Models.

Winter Storm Warning And Winter Weather Advisory

This will be an all-day event. While the ending time is tonight, I expect NWS will cancel counties as the snow tapers off.

Warning: Up to 5 inches for Metro Philadelphia, Baltimore, north of Washington.

Winter Weather Advisory for 1 to 3 inches elsewhere.

My Final Call For Snowfall – MORNING UPDATE

Given the early burst of snow that reached 3″ in some metro areas by 8 AM

I am expecting this to OVERACHIEVE.  Suggestion it ‘might’ add an additional 2 to 4 inches.

Morning Temperatures

Cold enough for stickage! This has been a fluffy, powder-type snow in metro Baltimore so far. This is easier to push but extra slippery. Temps may get colder later as the Meso-Low takes over.

Live Radar Widget

This is NOT in winter mode, but may help show the intensity better.

If you see a back edge approaching, that is NOT the end. It will redevelop, as we will see on the forecast simulation below.

Morning Surface Weather

The inland Low appears to be now the driving force as opposed to that Low along the Coast. We will watch this redefine itself by the coast of Delmarva this afternoon and enhance the snow.

Storm Forecast 4 PM

This is the Meso-Low I have been talking about. This is the slow mover that will enhance the snow rate and extend the duration to the end of the day/evening.

Animation: Friday Morning to Saturday Afternoon

Local Look: NAM 3 Km model

3 PM Snapshot

Again, we can see the Meso-Low near the Maryland coast. The exact location will determine where the moderate snow bands will set up. This suggests snow will continue to fall across all of Maryland and Delmarva into the end of the daylight hours.

Animation: 8 AM to Midnight

Snow will last most of the day, then taper to snow showers between 4 and 8 PM.  Additional snow showers may arrive through midnight.

Afternoon Temperatures

Snowfall POTENTIAL

NAM 3 Km

ECMWF Model

GFS Model

Canadian GEM Model

National Weather Service Maps

Just Maryland

Maryland and Virginia

Pennsylvania

Metro Philadelphia: SE PA/NJ/DE

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY January 19

Sunrise at 7:23 AM

Sunset at 5:12 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  25ºF

Record -5ºF in 1994

Normal High in Baltimore: 43ºF

Record 69ºF 1951

In case you missed it…

Jan 16 Snow Report

Click here or the map to see: The Snow Report Ending Jan 16

Saturday Weather

It will be a cold and windy day!

The mountains will continue to get snow, and a few flurries may reach central Maryland. The Ravens Game will be very cold! I am going with my son, and I will have my snowboarding gear on!

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Wind

Temperatures

Wind Chill

7 Day Outlook

After this snow event, wind and cold will hold all weekend.

Strong winds and even flurries on Saturday.

The next storm will track west. This will bring in warmer air and rain on Wednesday and Thursday.

Faith in the Flakes Gear

Explore More

Maryland Snow Climate History And Other Winter Pages

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

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RECENT Winter Outlook Reports:

My Winter Outlook: More Snow

El Niño Winter Updates

Late November: Warm Water Shifts West In Pacific Could Mean More Snow For Eastern US

Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track

El Niño Advisory

The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.

Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.

NOAA’s Winter Outlook 2024

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF