January 18, 2024

Thursday Morning Update

Today will be a cold and quiet day ahead of the next event. As clouds increase, it may make it feel colder and look like it may snow at times. There may be flurries or snow showers in the evening or tonight. I would focus on the snow developing before sunrise on Friday.

The moderate snowfall will likely peak during the morning to early afternoon.

This is likely to impact travel and schools, so pay attention for information from your local district.

Winter Weather Advisories UPDATED

The National Weather Service finally expanded the alerts into Maryland and Virginia. This follows the logic I have been sharing and my forecast as well.

Plan for snow to arrive before sunrise, with the biggest impact in metro areas during the morning to early afternoon.

A Winter Storm Warning in the higher mountains with 6 to 12 inches of snow possible through Saturday.

My First Call For Snowfall

Again, I need to play the conservative side here… but I believe this may be a near repeat of last week… Perhaps a little lighter snow in central and southern Maryland.

MY NEXT FULL UPDATE WILL BE BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM

See the NWS and model snow maps below.

NEW UPDATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON

Click to View

Suggestion: Snow May Linger Longer

Morning Temperatures

Morning Surface Weather

Not much suggestion for our weather event here on the map…. There is a front in the Great Lakes that will help enhance our cloud cover.. perhaps flurries later in the mountains and northern zones.

The snow event we expect will be developing with the upper level influence early Friday.

Afternoon Temperatures

Storm Forecast

ECMWF Model

Let’s start with this wider view. A closer look, snapshots, and model snow potential maps are below.

While the Surface Low will be far to our east off the coast, there may be a Meso-Low developing South of I-95 in SE VA that can enhance the snowfall briefly. This will be a reflection of the jet streak/upper-level winds that can increase the rising air and drop the pressure to expand the snow.

Friday Afternoon Snapshot

See more local maps below.  

In case you missed it…

Click here or the map to see: The Snow Report Ending Jan 16

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY January 18

Sunrise at 7:23 AM

Sunset at 5:11 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  25ºF

Record -4ºF in 1957

Normal High in Baltimore: 43ºF

Record 68ºF 1986, 1990

Friday Weather

Radar Simulation: 12 AM Fri to 12 AM Sat

I am seeing a limit of the snow for central Maryland and to the north. Farther south will be on the edge and get some…ending with rain showers.

The heaviest snow may be across Northern Maryland to Southern PA.

Then, snow will continue into Saturday in the higher mountains. That plus colder temps will magnify their total.

Snapshots Friday

7 AM

Snow will be impacting the morning commute.

Temperatures

Most will be in the 20s, so just about all that falls will lay and stay.

1 PM

4 PM Temperatures

The freezing line may reach into metro Baltimore.

7 PM

Ending as snow showers…. With steady snow remaining in the mountains.

Snowfall POTENTIAL

ECMWF Model

GFS Model

Canadian GEM Model

National Weather Service Maps

Maryland and Virginia

Pennsylvania

NOAA Outlook Next Week

We will flip back to a warmer pattern, but it is all relative. For now, I see 40s with rain on Wednesday and maybe into the 50s by the end of next week. So, the colors may be deceiving.

7 Day Outlook

After this snow event, wind and cold will hold all weekend.

A slow mild trend will take us into the next warmer storm track to our west.

Rain Wednesday….

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RECENT Winter Outlook Reports:

My Winter Outlook: More Snow

El Niño Winter Updates

Late November: Warm Water Shifts West In Pacific Could Mean More Snow For Eastern US

Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track

El Niño Advisory

The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.

Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.

NOAA’s Winter Outlook 2024

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow

Explore More

Maryland Snow Climate History And Other Winter Pages

Faith in the Flakes Gear

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF