Monday January 8 2024

There has been a lot of concern for the storm expected on Tuesday. The high winds and heavy rain will get worse later in the day and at night. As a precaution, some areas schools have already announced closing early in anticipation of the conditions. It will be a bumpy day, but I see the peak of the storm passing through after dark.

Concerns:

• Downed Trees
• Flying Decorations/Lawn Furniture
• Power Outages
• Flooding from heavy rain
• Flooding from high water on the Chesapeake Bay.

Storm Animation Summary

Tuesday Morning to Wednesday Afternoon

I have received many messages asking about a ‘hurricane’. This is not that type of storm. There have been some computer models suggesting winds may briefly reach up over 70 mph on Delmarva. I often see these products overestimate the conditions. I will show them below… Even if not reached, the squall line that may produce the intense air flow will likely lead to concerns about power outages to impacts on area bridges.

Flooding is another concern. Heavy rain may range from 1 to 3 inches, in addition to winds piling high water up the Chesapeake Bay FROM THE SOUTH. A few Rivers have a Major Flood Stage Forecast.

Here is a quick look at what we can expect. Let’s start with the Wind and Water.

WIND ALERTS After 3 PM Tuesday

Wind Advisory:

• Wind gusts up to 50 mph

High Wind Watch:

• Wind Gusts 60 mph – or higher

Peak Wind Gusts

7 PM to Midnight

This product and a few others may overdo the wind gusts. It is still safe to expect OVER 50 mph with the squall line covering a large area.

The highest winds will be by the water and on Delmarva.

Wind Forecast Animation

7 AM to Midnight

Timeline snapshots are below.

Water

Flood Watch: Heavy rainfall over 1 inch.

Coastal Flood Watch: Wind piling high water up the Chesapeake Bay.

Rain Forecast

River Flood Forecast

The National Weather Service has identified a few areas (in purple) to reach close to Major Flood Stage. See the charts below.

Moderate to Major Flood Stage Forecast

Baltimore at Fort McHenry

5.7 Ft height just below Major Flood Stage around 8 PM.

Annapolis at Severn River

4.9 Ft height just below Major Flood Stage around 7 PM.

Cambridge

5.1 Ft height just below Major Flood Stage around 9 PM to 11 PM.

Radar Simulation

9 AM to Midnight

Snapshots

10 AM

This may begin briefly with snow and ice in the mountains. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to include Cumberland and McHenry.

NOTE: Conditions will get worse in the Afternoon and Evening.

4 PM

Radar Simulation

Wind

8 PM

Radar Simulation

Wind

10 PM

Radar Simulation

Wind

Midnight

The squall line should approach the beaches by this time…

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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