January 19 Snow Report And Grade My Forecast
Monday January 20 2025 The winter weather event that crossed the Mid Atlantic states on Sunday was the precursor of a Polar Air Mass invading much of the nation. While…
January 5 Weather Winter Storm Watch Expanded Again But Cities Change To Rain
Maryland Weather
climate data
Winter Weather
Forecast
Warnings
January 5, 2024
Friday Morning Update
We need cold air for a snowstorm, and it is in place this morning. The storm is moving through Texas and will head our way tomorrow morning to mid-day. The track and temperatures are the issue. While more counties have been added to the Winter Storm Watch, the population centers in the cities on I-95 will miss out on most. Snow there may start, but the ground will be warm. Then, a changeover to rain during the afternoon and evening will include the Ravens game. Traveling home to the west and north may still be a problem!
Winter Storm Watch
This has been expanded again to include northern Baltimore County and York County in PA.
Up to 5 inches of snow and/or 0.2” ice with freezing rain.
There will be an upgrade to Winter Storm Warnings or Winter Weather Advisories today.
Radar Simulation: NAM 3 Km
Sat Noon to 10 PM
This high-resolution first look shows the transition from snow to rain within Baltimore City. This includes a change to rain during the Ravens game.
Places closer to the water will turn to rain… inland will hold the cold and snow longer.
My Initial Call For:
The LOW END I was confident about: This should hold.
National Weather Service Maps
Snow Maryland/Virginia
Ice Maryland/Virginia
Snow Central Pennsylvania
More Storm Maps Below
I need to point out that many models update every 6 hours. However, the full prime package is generated at 12 Z (7 AM) and 00Z (7 PM). The in-between hours often wobbles the snow line, which is why it can appear as if the storm keeps changing back and forth. I stick with the main updates for that reason and hold the course that Baltimore, for example, should start with falling snow and then change to rain during the game. The ground temps there do not support problems for roads.
Morning Surface Weather
High Pressure has us clear and COLD this morning. The leading clouds will be filtering in and dim the sky this afternoon.
The storm is located in Texas and will get redefined across the Gulf Coast states later today, then turn our way tomorrow.
Morning Temperatures
Afternoon Temperatures
CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore
TODAY January 5
Sunrise at 7:26 AM
Sunset at 4:58 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record 1ºF in 1877
Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF
Record 69ºF 1997
Saturday: Storm Day!
Morning Temperatures
This will set the stage for where the snow will stick or not….
Afternoon Temperatures
Some areas may get snow falling with temps just above freezing and end up with slush. However, the inland areas are likely to hold the cold air just west and north of the cities. This is where the Winter Storm Watch is in place.
Storm Animation Saturday Morning to Sunday Night
We still must consider the influence of the 42ºF water in the Bay, which will change this over to rain in central Maryland. It might happen by the end of the Ravens game in the evening.
Temps will remain above freezing in metro areas… so the snow that falls may still mean wet roads and limited stickage on the grass.
Farther inland will remain colder and snowy where accumulations will be higher.
Snapshots:
1 PM
Snow will reach into metro areas by lunchtime. Steady snow and even ice will be falling across the mountains. Rain to the south.
4 PM
This time frame will be on display at the Ravens game. I still see snow starting and then changing to rain. The main issue will be that the cities will be too warm for much stickage. Inland areas will get the snow to lay and stay, adding to road issues and accumulation.
7 PM
The rain line is likely to move north of the city by evening, but the ice and snow will hold just west and north. This is the tough part to pin down, so we go with topography and climate norms to conclude Northern Baltimore and Carroll Counties as the nearby spots staying with the snow and ice.
Sunday Morning
Lingering Showers
Computer Model Show Maps
They have trended north/warmer.
ECMWF Model
The lower snow solution.
GFS Model
Canadian GEM Model
Still shows the highest numbers.
NEXT STORM: Next Tue-Wed
This tracks farther west. Some inland mix, but looks like mostly rain.
7 Day Forecast
Quick look beyond the weekend storm, and the next one that will follow will be farther west. That means even if it starts with a mix, it is likely to turn to rain.
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RECENT Winter Outlook Reports:
My Winter Outlook: More Snow
El Niño Winter Updates
Late November: Warm Water Shifts West In Pacific Could Mean More Snow For Eastern US
Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.
Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.
Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow
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Maryland Snow Climate History And Other Winter Pages
Faith in the Flakes Gear
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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
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