December 29, 2023
Friday Morning Update
Let’s start with the good news! The daylight today will be 1 minute and 49 seconds LONGER than the Winter Solstice. With the clouds thinning, we may see some of it. However, one disturbance will arrive tonight with some rain.
The weekend will bring a return to seasonally colder air. This will include a quiet pattern for the Ravens game and into New Year’s Day.
We are still mild and affected by plenty of clouds. There will be some thinning of the overcast sky during the day, allowing breaks of sun.
The disturbance to the west will arrive tonight with rain showers. It will more likely be wet farther south… but some split in the modeling affects central Maryland.
This will be followed by the pattern changing back to seasonably cooler temps.
Heavier rain is expected from central Virginia into Southern Maryland. This model shows rain expanding into metro Baltimore.
Here, we see a discrepancy between the short-range high-resolution HRRR and the GFS Model (I’ve been giving this more credit this season).
The modeling has actually been underestimating the rain we have had recently. That is why I am leaning towards the HRRR bringing the rain north into central Maryland tonight.
May be missing the northern fringe.
Sunrise at 7:25 AM
Sunset at 4:52 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 27ºF
Record 2ºF in 1917
Normal High in Baltimore: 45ºF
Record 77ºF 1984
The New Year will begin with a cooler pattern that brings us back to seasonal expectations.
A few more impulses next week are showing the trend for colder air. This may include a storm with winter precipitation mid-week. That is still not certain, but the support for something to develop is there for Wednesday and Thursday. There is not true arctic air… yet. It will be coming.
Still uneventful, which is good, I guess. After the disturbance tonight, the quiet and seasonally cooler air mass will last into next week. The only hint of winter weather might arrive towards the end of next week.
Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.
Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.
Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
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