Snow Update For Winter Storm Tuesday Evening February 11
Tuesday Evening Update The timeline for snow arrival worked out pretty well this afternoon. In comparison of the short range models, this part has the NAM 3 Km performing better…
Flood Watch For Coastal Storm Sunday Afternoon and Overnight
Flooding
Maryland Weather
rain timeline
Forecast
Warnings
December 16 2023
Saturday Night Update
The storm we have talked about for a few days has now taken form. An organized Low Pressure is off the west coast of Florida and will spread north up the East Coast on Sunday.
This event will bring multiple weather concerns for our region:
- Flooding From Rain: 2 to 3+ inches are possible for many areas.
- Flooding From High Water: Winds will pile water higher on the WEST SIDE of the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic coast.
- Wind Gusts: Sunday night will bring 40+ mph for central Maryland and up to 60 mph by the ocean coast.
Flood Watch Sunday
Saturday Night Set Up
Low Pressure is located just west of Tampa, FL. This is continuing to develop and will move to the Northeast as it grows stronger.
Forecast Animation Sunday Morning to Tuesday Morning
Sunday Night
The rain is expected to develop by the afternoon. The heaviest rain will fall overnight.
Monday Morning
The track of Low Pressure may be close to the Chesapeake Bay. This will bring the heaviest rain in the morning to the north. The strong winds may lull as it passes, then be followed by a period of dry and mild conditions.
Closer Look
Noon Sunday
Spotty showers will be breaking out across the region. This is NOT the organized rain that will move in from the south later…
Radar Simulation: 4 PM Sun to 11 AM Mon
Snapshots
8 PM Sunday
Steady rain will be in place, with heavy rain moving from south to north. The heaviest rain will be at night. If you have plans to go out and watch the Ravens game, this may affect your drive home later.
11 AM Monday
The back edge of the rain should be moving through to the north by noon.
Colder winds will follow. There will already be snow showers breaking out in the mountains. Some flurries and snow showers may follow into metro areas later in the day.
Rainfall Potential
The heaviest rain might be over I-95 to I-83, including Central Maryland and Central Pennsylvania.
Wind Forecast 4 PM Sun to Noon Monday
Snapshot 10 PM Sunday
The peak winds will be overnight. They may range from:
- 40 mph in metro areas
- 50 to 60 mph by the beaches
RECENT Winter Outlook Reports:
My Winter Outlook: More Snow
El Niño Winter Updates
Late November: Warm Water Shifts West In Pacific Could Mean More Snow For Eastern US
Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.
Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.
Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow
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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
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