November 16, 2023

Thursday Morning Update

Locally the top weather story has been the lack of rain. We have growing drought concerns and a new report will be out today.

As a result of the dry conditions, wildfires have developed in the mountains and smoke has drifted into some metro areas. The haze and smell may be more noticeable this morning.

The developing storm near Miami will likely pass too far off the coast. It will be mostly a non-event for us with showers in the mountains from a cold front.

Colder air will arrive next week AND FOR Thanksgiving. In between we may get that needed rain starting on Tuesday.

Smoke Map

There have been some wildfires in the mountains with smoke drifting at low levels along the Potomac River Valley. Some smelled it yesterday, and there may be more smoke and haze this morning.

Morning Surface Weather

Locally dry with the haze and smell in metro areas from the wildfire smoke. The day will be sunny.

The next storm is dumping heavy rain in Florida. The new Low Pressure is taking form near Miami.

Afternoon Temperatures

El Niño Winter Updates

Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track

El Niño Advisory

The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY November 16

Sunrise at 6:51 AM

Sunset at 4:52 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  37ºF

Record 19ºF in 1933; 1996

Normal High in Baltimore: 57F

Record 76ºF 1928; 2005

Winter Outlook Reports:

NOAA’s Winter Outlook

Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.

NOAA’s Winter Outlook 2024

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow

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Temperatures

Friday Morning

Friday Afternoon

Warmer.

Storm 1: Friday Morning to Saturday Afternoon

The Coastal Storm will be farther east AND the cold front will fall apart.

Snapshot Friday Night

Saturday Morning

Mostly a miss for us… this time.

Storm 2: HOLIDAY Tuesday Morning to Thanksgiving Night

The timing is earlier with each model run. This now looks like mostly a Tuesday to Wednesday morning event. It will be followed by cold and dry winds for Thanksgiving.

Closer View Snapshots

Tuesday Morning

A hint of some wintry weather inland at the start… I would not focus on that now.

Tuesday Evening

Steady and heavy rain much of the day and overnight.

Wednesday Afternoon

I-95 will be wet! It looks like the bulk of the rain will be in the morning, then ending for us in the afternoon… lingering longer for New York and New England.

Jet Stream: Friday Evening to Thanksgiving

Two waves of colder air. First this weekend, then milder with the storm, followed by even colder air on Thanksgiving.

Snapshot Thanksgiving: Much Colder!

7 Day Forecast

The first storm will fade but bring colder air. The next storm looks beneficial, with the rain ending before the holiday. Then, we see a chilly Thanksgiving.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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