November 10, 2023

Friday Morning Update

Yesterday, Baltimore reached 77ºF, just missing the record high. Now we get a reality check WITH SOME NEEDED RAIN. There are growing drought conditions across our region. The rain this morning is welcome, but will not help much. Looking ahead to next week there continues to be an absence of rain.

Temperatures will get a reality check as it turns cooler today and it will remain chilly through the weekend. The trend turns warmer for the last part of next week.

Drought Monitor: Baltimore/Washington Region

Note: I am aware the reservoirs are low and it is very dry in Pennsylvania as well.

• Shenandoah Mountains: SEVERE to EXTREME
• Frederick MD: Drought
• Rest of our region: Abnormally Dry state is EXPANDING.

Morning Surface Weather

Today, we have rain in the cooler air and it will turn chilly after it slips to the south.

There may be a few hours of snow in the high mountains of Western Maryland and West Virginia. This may be above 2,500 Ft elevation.

A large, dry air mass from the North Central Plains will take over this weekend.

This weather may be significant as it displays a flow of moisture behind a cold from Texas up into the Mid-Atlantic. If you have been reading my El Niño Winter Outlook reports, this may become a common storm track leading into this winter.

Live Radar Widget

Morning Temperatures

Live Webcam: McHenry, MD

As temps get colder, we may see snow falling around Deep Creek Lake. Elevation is 2,200 Ft to 3,000 Ft above sea level.

This webcam is positioned at The Greene Turtle Deep Creek Lake and shows Wisp Resort, including a zoomed-in view of Squirrel Cage, The Face, the terrain park, Boulder, the mountain coaster, the tubing park, and a shot of McHenry Cove at Deep Creek Lake!

Radar Simulation Forecast: 7 AM to 7 PM

Snapshots

11 AM

Soggy morning from Central Maryland to Southern PA and the Western Mountains. Snow will mix in above 2,000 Ft.

3 PM

The band of rain will slide south and break up into scattered showers across Southern Maryland and Delmarva.

Afternoon Temperatures

Storm Simulation

Friday to Sunday

After this front slides south, a chilly and dry air mass will dominate the weekend. If you are going to the Ravens Game, temps may just reach the lower 50s.

New Report: El Niño Advisory

The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY November 10

Sunrise at 6:44 AM

Sunset at 4:57 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  38ºF

Record 24ºF in 2003

Normal High in Baltimore: 59F

Record 78ºF 2020

Winter Outlook Reports:

Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.

NOAA’s Winter Outlook 2024

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow

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Saturday: Veterans Day

Morning Temperatures

It’s worth noting that some mountain areas may be icy after the rain-snow mix today and near freezing temps overnight.

Afternoon Temperatures 

Looking Ahead Jet Stream

Animation Friday to Wednesday

We will be on the edge of cooler air, then we see a moderation again for the second half of next week.

7 Day Forecast

We have a chilly stretch of air this weekend, into early next week. Then a moderating trend to back above average by the end of next week. That may last into Thanksgiving.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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