September 22, 2023
Friday Morning Update
The storm off the coast is still being called Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen. It is not a tropical storm (yet) but is already a dangerous system and getting stronger. This storm without a name has winds of 50 mph and tropical storm winds over 39 mph reach 240 miles away from the center.
The National Hurricane Center has issued Tropical Storm Warnings up the coast into Southern Maryland. The National Weather Service is handling local alerts and Wind Advisories extend farther north into Anne Arundel County.
There is going to be a storm surge up the Chesapeake Bay, Potomac River, and coastal Ocean City and Delaware up to 3 feet. I have some Tide Tables below for key locations.
National Hurricane Center 5 AM Update
Local Forecast Maps Below
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Surf City to Duck North Carolina
* Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
Here are Three Key Points Of Interest. The High Tide Saturday Night is the one where we may see the highest water.
Additional Tables for Maryland can be generated here: Saltwater Tides
Baltimore: Fort McHenry
Flooding here is likely all day Saturday
Tropical Storm Warning
Maryland: Calvert, St. Mary’s, Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset, and Worcester
Wind Advisory: Includes Anne Arundel County: up to 50 mph. This may get expanded to include more counties in central Maryland.
Storm Surge Warning: Southern Chesapeake Bay and Coastal Areas Up to New Jersey.
Gale Warning Up To Northern Chesapeake Bay: Waves up to 4 Feet. Wind to 45 knots.
Coastal Flood Watch: Potomac River up to Washington, DC.
Low Pressure is located 325 miles south of Cape Hatteras. While it has 50 mph winds, it does not have a closed warm tropical core yet. There is a chance it organizes today and may get named Ophelia.
The leading edge may reach Ocean City later this afternoon.
Forecast Animation and more Key Time Frames BELOW the Climate Data
Sunrise at 6:54 AM
Sunset at 7:04 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 57ºF
Record 37ºF in 1962
Normal High in Baltimore: 78ºF
Record 99ºF 1931
This covers our weekend and shows three main things:
This latest plot shows the storm lingering with rain on Sunday and into Monday morning.
Storm Forecast
Wind Forecast
The remaining Low Pressure, a chilly north wind, and leftover showers are expected for the Ravens game.
Considering that the European model had the storm as a miss, it is now in line with the GFS Model to bring a few inches for most areas.
There will be LESS WEST and MORE EAST
I ran out of time and will not be posting my outlook this morning. I hope you understand.
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
#FITF
