July 4 Heat And Humidity Return For The Holiday and Week

July 4, 2023

Tuesday Morning Update

This may be the first heat wave we have had all summer. We have not clustered a bunch of days together in the 90s, let alone with uncomfortable humidity. The next few days will bring us just that.

While we have had a few severe storm outbreaks, those will take a break for a little bit. While each day may bring pop-up showers, the main risk for active storms will return at the end of the week.

Storm Damage

A few clusters of severe storms erupted on Monday.

The storm in eastern Baltimore County produced up to 5 inches of rain in some spots. There was a glitch on the radar estimate, so I will have to share that image later.

The other flare up was on the Eastern Shore. Storm damage included Tilghman Island to interior Dorchester County east of Cambridge.

Morning Surface Weather

In typical summer fashion, many weather patterns remain stagnant. Storm systems are slower and in this case, we remain in the heat and humidity with instigation in the atmosphere to produce storms later. These have a chance to become strong or severe.

Afternoon Temperatures

Heat Index

The humidity will be the main factor today… and we will feel it.

Severe Storm Risk From NOAA

The ‘Marginal Risk’ in green is Level 1 of 5. This means that while showers and storms may pop up, the chance exists for any to turn severe, but that chance is very low.

Radar Simulation Noon to 10 PM

There may be some pop-up showers with the heat and humidity, but they will be few and far between. Here’s a comparison of the HRRR and NAM 3 Km Models simply to highlight the variation of suggestions… This is not perfect in spotting locations.

HRRR Model

NAM 3 Km

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY July 4

Normal Low in Baltimore:  67ºF

Record 53ºF in 1986

Normal High in Baltimore: 89ºF

Record 100ºF 2002

Wednesday

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Looking Ahead

The next period of active weather is expected to be on Friday, with an increased flare-up of thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast

We will crank up the heat and humidity this week for the closest thing we have had to a heat wave this year.  The storm risk will wane for a few days, then ramp back up over the weekend.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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