Smokey Sunrise From Wildfires In Western Canada: Photos And Forecast

May 10, 2023

It was hard to deny the haze in the sky this morning. At first glance, I was wondering if there was fog or a low cloud deck dimming the rising sun. We have High Pressure in control and the forecast for a few days of sunshine. However, the source of our air is from a few thousand miles away.

We had our own drought and brushfires mitigated by two weeks of cool and wet weather. Much of the western US has had an epic record winter and spring with rain and mountain snow. However, that has not been the case in Western Canada. The storm track has missed them, and with early season heat, the conditions have allowed many wildfires to grow out of control.

Sunrise Photos

In Maryland, Mary Conway captured this view.

The view in York County, PA by Lake Williams

It was mixed with steaming fog off the water, but the haze was definitely from the upper level smoke.

Mapping The Source Of Smoke

NASA Firms is the Fire Resource and Management System for the US and Canada. Here I was able to do a rough calculation between the wildfire region in Alberta. That is roughly 2,100 miles from Central Maryland and the Mid Atlantic region in the US.

Morning Satellite

The NOAA GOES East Satellite was able to capture the smoke in the visible spectrum this morning. That brownish patch over Central Maryland was quite dense considering the source region is so far away.

Smoke Analysis

The pocket of smoke we have now did not actually travel in a straight line. It also may seem disjointed from the source region. There is more smoke in the source of Alberta, Canada… So we will need to continue to watch for more to possibly stream our way.

Smoke Forecast Through Midnight

This shows the smoke will continue to be thick today and may start to shift east after midnight.

Air Quality Forecast

This is smoke that is aloft at cloud level. It is obscuring the sun and providing a haze in the sky. However, it has not reached the ground. It is possible some may lower, in small quantities. If you do smell smoke in the air, this would be the reason why. At this time it does not appear to be a major air quality issue, but there is a Code Yellow Forecast from Air Now.

More Photos

The earlier the photos were captured, the more red the sun appeared.

More Recent Smoke Events

Extended Weather Forecast

ECMWF Model

After a sunny and warm Friday, the clouds will arrive late followed by rain overnight. We can expect the rain to be with us on Saturday morning. While this shows a wet day overall, I want to consider the speed and timing bias of the modeling. That would suggest this may arrive and then depart faster.

GFS Model – Saturday through Tuesday Morning

The latest solution shows two separate weather systems. The first will be Saturday, with a break on Sunday. Then another for Monday.

7 Day Forecast

With the sunny days, we will have a warming trend to get us back to the 80s by Friday.

The next weather system looks like it will be concentrated on Saturday morning with rain.  We may improve later in the day, and most of Sunday. The following system will arrive for a wet Monday.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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