March 16, 2023
Thursday Morning
We will get a break and return to nice spring weather for a little bit. Light winds and sunshine will make for a great weather day. However, there is a large storm that will be producing severe storms in Texas and a snowstorm in the northern Plains.
St. Patrick’s Day will be mild, but after a sunny start will end with rain. It will be followed by a windy and colder weekend.
The NOAA Outlook supports our Cold Trend as temps will be lower than we had much of February (especially in the mornings).
With the old storm well off the coast, High Pressure keeps our winds calm. That will allow sunshine and a warm up.
The next storm will keep the pattern:
Severe Storm Risk
There may be an outbreak of severe storm cells near Dallas, TX. They will include damaging wind, large hail, and a few tornadoes.
A light breeze mainly under 10 mph, with a shift from west to the south later. Add in sunshine and warming temps and this is the story of a nice weather day.
Plenty of readings below freezing. You may have frost to scrape off your windshield. Consider a few extra minutes of thawing prep if you drive early.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 34ºF
Record 11ºF in 1911
SNOW: 5.1” in 1960
Normal High in Baltimore: 55ºF
Record 85ºF in 1945
Heat Wave: This was part of a 2-Day period in 1945 with temps in the mid 80s
Not as cold!
Another mild day, but rain showers will be arriving.
The next storm will arrive Friday, and break out to showers later Friday, ending Saturday morning. This will be followed by gusty winds and colder air. So while we clear out for Sunday, it will be windy and chilly.
We may have a mostly quiet week ahead, but we will be in pattern of temperatures mostly below average. The latest NOAA Temperature Outlook shows most of the nation remaining cooler than average for the next 6 to 10 days. We will have some mild days in between, however, there will be a lot of cold mornings ahead.
Yes, colder than most of February was for us.
Not much action for the next week. I see rain showers but not a steady storm. So the luck of the Irish may smile on us. After this warm up, temps will drop below average into next week. Many mornings will drop below freezing.
My REALISTIC Expectations for the COLD OUTLOOK
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
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I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct!
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future.
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I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/
https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/
