March 16 Nice Today Showers St. Patricks Night Then Colder

March 16, 2023

Thursday Morning

We will get a break and return to nice spring weather for a little bit. Light winds and sunshine will make for a great weather day. However, there is a large storm that will be producing severe storms in Texas and a snowstorm in the northern Plains.

St. Patrick’s Day will be mild, but after a sunny start will end with rain. It will be followed by a windy and colder weekend.

The NOAA Outlook supports our Cold Trend as temps will be lower than we had much of February (especially in the mornings).

Morning Surface Weather

With the old storm well off the coast, High Pressure keeps our winds calm. That will allow sunshine and a warm up.

The next storm will keep the pattern:

• Severe Storm Risk centered on Eastern Texas.
• Snowstorm stretching to the Northern Plains.
• We will get a two day warm up ahead of this storm.

Severe Storm Risk

There may be an outbreak of severe storm cells near Dallas, TX. They will include damaging wind, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

Wind Forecast

8 AM to 8 PM

A light breeze mainly under 10 mph, with a shift from west to the south later. Add in sunshine and warming temps and this is the story of a nice weather day.

Morning Temperatures

Plenty of readings below freezing. You may have frost to scrape off your windshield. Consider a few extra minutes of thawing prep if you drive early.

Afternoon Temperatures

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REPORT: La Niña Has Ended. El Nina May Return By Fall

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY March 16

Normal Low in Baltimore:  34ºF

Record 11ºF in 1911

SNOW: 5.1” in 1960

Normal High in Baltimore: 55ºF

Record 85ºF in 1945

Heat Wave: This was part of a 2-Day period in 1945 with temps in the mid 80s

REPORT: March Snow and Extreme Weather History

Friday Morning Temperatures

Not as cold!

Afternoon Temperatures

Another mild day, but rain showers will be arriving.

Forecast Animation: Friday Morning to Sunday Evening

The next storm will arrive Friday, and break out to showers later Friday, ending Saturday morning. This will be followed by gusty winds and colder air. So while we clear out for Sunday, it will be windy and chilly.

Looking Ahead:

NOAA Temperature Outlook

We may have a mostly quiet week ahead, but we will be in pattern of temperatures mostly below average. The latest NOAA Temperature Outlook shows most of the nation remaining cooler than average for the next 6 to 10 days.  We will have some mild days in between, however, there will be a lot of cold mornings ahead.

Yes, colder than most of February was for us.

7 Day Forecast

Not much action for the next week. I see rain showers but not a steady storm. So the luck of the Irish may smile on us. After this warm up, temps will drop below average into next week. Many mornings will drop below freezing.

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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

My REALISTIC Expectations for the COLD OUTLOOK

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss.

I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct!

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future.

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this.

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.

#FITF

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

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My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/20/atmospheric-memory-suggests-active-winter-storm-pattern-outlook/

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/21/winter-outlook-2023-from-noaa-very-different-than-farmers-almanacs/

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/

Woolly Bear Caterpillars

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/28/winter-weather-folklore-top-20-and-more-outlook-signals-from-nature-for-cold-and-snow/

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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