March 7, 2023
Tuesday Morning
Last night I wrote about that clipper crossing Pennsylvania which would bring them snow. I’ve seen some reports of 4 to 6 inches in the mountains and will do a comparison later to the model plots. This may help show which is performing best to apply to our weekend event.
The promise today is that we will get cold winds! Gusts up to 35 mph will make the slightly cooler air feel colder and uncomfortable. The breeze and cooler trend will remain with us this week. Then our attention will be on the attempt for two winter type events Friday night and early next week.
Trivia: Our record high temperature for this date was set last year with a High of 79ºF in Baltimore.
No records this morning. Colder air is flowing in…
Watching this clipper that brought snow to Pennsylvania. Colder winds have reached Maryland. There may be some flurries this morning, but no impact expected. The winds will remain strong all day and into tomorrow.
7 AM to 7 PM
Steady winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
It will feel like a winter afternoon and uncomfortable for after school sports.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 31ºF
Record 6ºF in 2015
SNOW: 10” in 1941
Normal High in Baltimore: 52ºF
Record 79ºF in 2022
This RECORD was last year!
Morning
Afternoon
My REALISTIC Expectations for the COLD OUTLOOK
Storm Development Friday Night
Let’s look at the Two Model Comparisons. The GFS AND ECMWF Models are still showing ‘something’ developing with a snow mix Friday night.
Please note that just showing snow/blue does not automatically infer stickage or a storm. This is simply for what may fall…
Friday Morning to Saturday Evening
Friday Evening to Tuesday Morning
This model also brings in the first wave Friday night, then a second stronger storm forming Monday on the coast.
This looks like a pass to the NORTH with Low Pressure. The blue into central Maryland is more like a suggestion of wet snow/mix. That is how I will treat it for now. The steady snow would be in the central Pennsylvania mountains where they have seen snow recently.
This brings the snow/mix farther south and about 6 hours later. I remain suspicious about this solution, but even if it verifies, it does NOT look like a concern for stickage or accumulation.
The European Model has been persistent with this solution, evolving a second wave that develops stronger on the coast.
I must remain skeptical, no matter how good this looks. I have noticed the trend of systems verifying NORTH of what is originally shown.
I will continue to post this time frame to compare for consistency, trend, or another flip. I just have a hard time trusting storm plots after all the fails this winter.
We will end up with a week of temperatures cooler than average, but not winter cold! This is the seasonal perspective I mentioned.
The weekend storm does not look like much for us now… and that Carrot for next week is simply for conversation. I am not putting much into it now.
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/
https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/
