February 19 Back To Our Warm Pattern Some Rain And Hint Of Winter Next Weekend

February 19, 2023

Sunday Morning

Here we go again warming things up. This has been a Winter more like a long Autumn, which has helped utility bills but hurt snow lovers. I feel you and know literally anything can happen through March.

The week ahead may get one day near record warmth. Almost a guarantee to see one day in the 70s.  Then a hint at snow next weekend. All winter we have seen a phantom storm one week away not materialize, so I will show you what I see on the model plots, but will not get too excited yet until we get a few more days of consistent data.

Morning Temperatures

Residual cold air but it will be eroding fast as we get back into our mild pattern.

Morning Surface Weather

The satellite shows a cloudy sky, but I’ve witnessed thin clouds with some sunshine over central Maryland already this morning.

Temperatures Afternoon

A warmer day with temperatures back into the 50s.  Areas that may reach the 60s are more likely to the west where sun will break out sooner.

If you get into afternoon sun, your temps may surge higher as well.

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY February 19

Normal Low in Baltimore:  28ºF

Record 5ºF in 1903

SNOW: 5.7” in 16.4″ in 1979

Normal High in Baltimore: 47ºF

Record 72ºF 1997

President’s Day

It doesn’t always snow, and it definitely won’t this year! We may have scattered rain showers with mild temps in the 50s.

Morning

Most of our region will start the day near or above 40ºF.

Afternoon

Mild again back into the mid 50s.

Tuesday Rain?

It may appear worse on your app than it will be. I see scattered showers, not a washout.

Wednesday Rain

This looks like a more potent system, but for the northern half of our region, north of Baltimore. There will be a period of steady rain, with an icy mix into northern Pennsylvania and a return to snow across central New York. It will bring a winter storm to Northern New England.

Forecast Animation:

Thursday Through Saturday

This is the European Model showing rain showers pushing north as very warm air flows in.  There will be an impactful icy mix and snow to our north.

The big warm up will be Thursday as temperatures will approach one of the oldest records on the books.

It was 78ºF in 1874 on Feb 23.  That is the mark to watch! We often end up higher than models show.

The colder air will actually arrive almost uneventfully Friday, then we will see if that atmosphere will line up the energy on Saturday.

Snow Saturday? I am only following the suggestion now, but need two more days of consistent data before I will take this seriously.

Saturday: GFS Model

This solution is the coldest and most aggressive. I need to remind you that this model has done this all winter and has often failed. Since there is some hint of snow across model guidance, I am showing it to you.

Again, I need two more days of consistency and once we get within 5 days I will consider taking this seriously. If nothing else, this is just hope for winter lovers for something to hang on to.

7 Day Forecast

Rain showers this week but NOT a washout.  The steadier rain is likely to be on Wednesday and for the northern half of the region.

The colder air will actually arrive almost uneventfully Friday, then we will see if that atmosphere will line up the energy Saturday.

Snow Saturday? I am only following the suggestion now, but need 2 more days of consistent data before I take this seriously.

TRAIN DERAILMENT: TOXIN TRANSPORT 

Report: Tracking Winds For Movement from the accident to the Controlled Burn Also see Videos Of Toxins in local water in East Palestine, OH.

REPORT: Chesapeake Bay and Ohio Watersheds. Please click here for that report if you missed it.

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

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STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/20/atmospheric-memory-suggests-active-winter-storm-pattern-outlook/

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Woolly Bear Caterpillars

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/28/winter-weather-folklore-top-20-and-more-outlook-signals-from-nature-for-cold-and-snow/

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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