February 13, 2023
Monday Morning
That storm brought some sleet and wet snow to metro areas, but that was an afterthought with the chilly and heavy rain. It is moving off the coast today and allowing the warmth to return this week
Temps will surge just ahead of the next storm. We will have a few days in the 60s. Any chance to reach 70ºF will depend on the rainfall.
A few spots have dropped to freezing, but any icing would be limited to car tops and elevated steps.
That storm is moving off the coast and now we set up for a warm spell for the bulk of the week.
Pleasant with more sunshine.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record 1ºF in 1983
SNOW: 15.5” in 1899
Normal High in Baltimore: 46ºF
Record 72ºF 1951
Warm in the East and colder/storms across the middle and west of our nation. This active and persistent storm pattern will bring us our warm week, then collapse with a cold surge briefly this coming weekend.
I want to pause here for a moment as this will be the theme of the week, and has been all winter. THIS is atmospheric memory on display. A Ridge of High Pressure will pump in warmth mid week. This is ahead of a strong storm that will track to the Great Lakes. Those that have had snow will get more. Those that have had severe storms, will get more. We will get a few more very warm days.
With the warm air comes the rain. The showers for us on Wednesday may fade, which will be our best chance to overshoot the forecast and aim for near 70ºF. Then more substantial rain is expected Thursday and Friday.
On Friday, a strong cold front will take temps down from the 60s in the morning to the 30s in the afternoon. The only snow nearby will be confined to the higher mountains in western Maryland, PA and WV.
Next weekend will be colder, briefly.. again. Seems like a familiar theme.
The potential to hit 70ºF will be determined by the rain. It looks like our best chance may be on Wednesday, if those showers break up. The rain on Thursday and Friday looks more likely.
This week is all about the warm temps… Until Friday.
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
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I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/
