February 10, 2023
Friday Morning
At this point all we can do is watch the unusual winter and point out the errors in computer models to try and anticipate a better idea of what is next. Then again, we can also reminisce about past winters, such as the record snow storm on this date.
I want to start with yesterday. Baltimore’s BWI hit 68ºF (warmer than the rest of central Maryland), but just 1 degree short of the record.
That mild air remained past midnight. The high temperature has already been hit today. A cold front will slowly cool us while we remain above average.
This product shows 66ºF at Baltimore BWI, however the RAW OBSERVATIONS showed it happened briefly at 1:35 AM. Why is this important? Because the record on this date was 66ºF set in 1960. So we may have tied the mark today.
We are cooling down, but still warmer than an average afternoon on this date.
A weak cold front has moved through and winds have been shifting to a colder direction. We will get back closer to ‘normal’ this weekend as we watch that Southern Storm develop.
Animation 8 AM to 8 PM
Northwest Winds will be 15 to 25 mph. Some gusts over 30 mph.
Very mild, and often we see numbers warmer than the models suggest.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record -7ºF in 1899
SNOW: 15.5” 2010
Normal High in Baltimore: 45ºF
Record 66ºF 1960
On this date in 2010 – The SECOND of TWO BLIZZARDS in 5 days hit our region. Baltimore at BWI officially measured 15.5 inches of snow on this date!
A little taste of winter… Ever so briefly!
This is more in line with seasonal norms.
The closed Low crosses the Carolinas, and barely scrapes Maryland. The issue is still about any model error, as we have seen all winter. If this verifies a little farther north, then that colder air will play more of a role mixing in slushy snow.
It’s a BIG IF going against the model guidance. The word SNOW on Super Bowl has kept my attention. I want to reiterate that IF this does happen, temps remain above freezing so stickage would be slushy and brief at best.
This tight core cold circulation is the reason we are talking about a coastal storm. The specific location is the make or break for who will be impacted by this coastal storm.
The ECMWF Model has kept this just to the south. The surprise here is that it now produces snow near and just north of Atlanta, GA in the morning. The mountains of the Carolinas to Virginia hold the forecast line. The rest is still debatable.
This tight spin has been showing a cut off across central Maryland. This has the cold pocket of air just west and south.
Using this scenario: Southern Maryland gets a chilly rain, perhaps with some flakes mixed in near Annapolis (not sticking), but northern Maryland and Southern PA dry.
The reason I ask to keep an open mind is based on the model error. We are 60 hours away from Sunday night and I still suspect a shift north from what models are showing now.
Consider this: If models have done this with a few potential snow events that failed to materialize, it is possible to bring a southern system farther north into our region and catch the colder air.
Temps will be above freezing, so if it happens it would be slushy and brief at best.
We still have the blip on Sunday, then warm again next week.
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
