February 7, 2023
Tuesday Morning
We are turning the corner again and shifting the winds from the south. While we wake up with cold air and widespread frost, winds from the south will bring back above-average temperatures.
The theme of the week, and next week for that matter, will be warmer than average. Winter does seem to be missing. There is one blip with the upper-level pattern that keeps this weekend in play for a brief coastal event. The modeling has been poor in handling most weather events lately. The European and GFS appear to be on a daily handoff between which one tries to produce snow. All I can suggest is to keep an open mind for the weekend.
We have a dirty High in the Eastern US. This simply means plenty of cloud cover within the dry air mass. Winds will pivot to the south today, starting the warming trend.
Frost may be a little extra thick this morning, so consider some extra time to warm up your vehicle to thaw or time to scrape.
Near to slightly above average. However, there will be a noticeable wind to keep some chill in the air.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record 6ºF in 1895
SNOW: 6.3” 1974
Normal High in Baltimore: 45ºF
Record 72ºF 2017
This cold front will be falling apart. We may see some rain showers, but more likely on the north side of Baltimore.
Not as cold.
Many will aim for the lower 50s. The 60s will be on display in central Virginia.
This shows the split of rain showers breaking up on Thursday, then more focused on Friday. This second system will be mainly in our southern areas. Then the questionable weekend weather. At this point, we see this model fading away that upper-level energy.
The tradeoff continues, this time with the GFS Model taking the baton.
This close up of the GFS Model shows the developing Low producing its own cold air. This is that upper-level Low helping to enhance the precipitation and transition rain to a wet snow.
Considering that the main models have been showing something for more than four straight days, I ask you to keep an open mind. The models have not been handling this winter well, and can’t seem to agree, but the signal is there, and the specifics get refined as we get closer.
This upper-level air flow shows a closed Low over the Mid-Atlantic coast within a warm pattern. This is the reason why one little system can generate its own cold air.
Overall we have a mild weather pattern. But it is possible to get snow, if that upper-level closed Low plays out. It is also possible to get snow even if the daily high is above freezing. That is what we see here, and what you may be seeing on your weather app.
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
