Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 02/05/2023 01:00:03 pm
Temperature

47°

Mostly Cloudy

19°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

32%

Feels Like

43°

Wind (SSW)

9mph

Air Pressure

30.17

Sun
Sun Rise

07:09 AM

Sun Set

05:31 PM

Day Length

10:22 Hours

Difference

2 min 10 sec gain

Moon
Moon Rise

05:27 PM

Moon Set

07:30 AM

Next: Full Moon

Feb 05,2023

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

25°

43°

Average High
Record Low

-1°


(1996)

73°


(1991)
Record High
Conditions

January 24 Breezy Today Winter Weather Wednesday

Maryland Weather
climate data
Winter Weather
Forecast
Warnings

January 24 2023

Tuesday Morning Report

Today will be dry and a bit breezy, so while mild there will be a bit of a wind chill. The main issue is the winter event on the way tomorrow. The timing is key to determine whether it can catch up to the early morning cold. The tendency has been for precipitation to arrive a little faster than the models show, which would mean a little more snow and possible stickage on roads.

Winter Weather Advisory: Southern Pennsylvania. I have a map and suggestions where in Maryland, VA, and WV may get added.

At this point, the arrival may be 7 AM to 11 AM, limiting any impact.  Below is a look at the models and my thoughts. Metro Baltimore and north have the better chance. The urban and southern areas are likely to be mostly rain.

Headlines

  • Today: Breezy
  • Wednesday: Snow (NW) Morning To All Rain
  • North: Some Stickage
  • Cities and South: Wet/Mostly Rain

 

Climate Trivia

Latest Measurable Snow In Baltimore

Today 5th Latest

  1. Feb 21 in 1973 (50 years ago)
  2. Feb 6 in 1914 (109 years ago)
  3. Jan 25 in 1992 ( 31 years ago)
  4. Jan 25 in 1901 ( 122 years ago)
  5. Jan 23 in 2023 CURRENT
  6. Jan 23 in 1966 (57 years ago)

 

Morning Temperatures

janauru-24-weather-wednesday-morning-temperatures

 

Morning Surface Weather

Our next storm is located in Texas this morning. Colder air with a cold front along the Canadian border is going to try and expand southeast.  This is a matter of timing and location. How far and deep can that cold air reach when the storm arrives….

janauru-24-weather-wednesday-morning

 

Wind  Simulation: 8 AM to 8 PM

Winds will be 10 to 20 mph.

January 24 weather wind tuesday

Afternoon Temperatures

Once again a little above average.

January 24 weather temperatures Tuesday afternon

Wind Chill

 

Not much, but noticeable.

January 24 weather temperatures Tuesday afternoon wind chill

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY January 24

Normal Low in Baltimore:  25ºF

Record 4ºF in 1983

SNOW: 8.4” 1966

Normal High in Baltimore: 43ºF

Record 71ºF 2015

 

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

 

Wednesday Weather

Winter Weather Alerts

At this point, NWS State College has put out their alerts for Pennsylvania. NWS in Sterling VA covers most of Maryland, VA, and WV. I believe the area highlighted may (not promised) have some advisories posted today. Pay attention for any updates and I will share during the day.

January 24 winter weather alerts

 

Who Will Get Snow?

I’m showing my comfort level at this point on the map below.

Timing will be KEY!  At this point, the models are trying to bring this in after sunrise to midday. Should we end up with a faster arrival closer to, or before sunrise, there will be more cold air in place to expand the snow coverage.

 

Impact Chances (my thoughts)

If you saw some snow yesterday morning (Monday), then you have a better chance to see it again Wednesday.

January 23 weather snow impact chances

Best Chance Includes: Martinsburg, Hagerstown, Frederick, Westminster, York, and Lancaster.

Good Chance: Mt. Airy, Eldersburg, Hereford…

On The Bubble: Germantown, Columbia, Baltimore, Bel Air, Elkton, even Metro Philadelphia off the edge of the map.

Not Likely: South and East of BWI. This includes Essex, Annapolis, Washington, Southern Maryland, and most of the Eastern Shore.

 

Storm Animation

ECMWF Model 7 AM WED to 7 PM THU

Timing is Key. Earlier would allow for colder air to team up and bring more snow.  Later would be a little warmer and more rain through metro Baltimore. It will gradually mix and change to all rain for the colder hills and mountains. More snow will hold in central and northern Pennsylvania.

January 24 weather winter storm snow

 

Model Comparison

ECMWF

Between 7 AM and 10 AM for the arrival shown, entering metro Baltimore with flurries while steady impact snow in the mountains.

January 24 weather winter storm snow ECMWF

 

GFS Model

This is a little faster, thus showing light snow into central Maryland between 7 AM and 10 AM.

January 24 weather winter storm snow GFS

 

Canadian GEM Model

This is a little later between 10 AM to 1 PM. The mix line splits through central Maryland with a mix west.

January 24 weather winter storm snow Canadian

 

NAM 3Km

This is later and allows for enough warming to bring mostly rain into central Maryland. The mix or snow is confined to near the PA line and north.

January 24 weather winter storm snow NAM

 

Temperatures

Timing is KEY to try and catch up to the cold air, but it will be warming slowly into the afternoon and night.

7 AM

The freezing temps reach into much of Maryland..

January 24 weather temperatures Wednesday morning

 

Evening High Temperatures

Temps will continue to slowly warm all afternoon and into the night.

January 24 weather temperatures Wednesday night

 

7 Day Forecast

Some upper level energy behind this storm may allow for some flurries. That is the best I’ve got as temps remain mostly above freezing in metro areas during the afternoons.

January 24 weather 7 day

 

 

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

 

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

 

 

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

 

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

 

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

 

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

 

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

 

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

 

 

 

 

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

 

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