Thursday Afternoon Update

This report is not a first, but personally, I hope it is the last of this kind this winter.  It is mid-January, and yes, I am reporting about thunderstorms later this evening and tonight. This is a brief update to show the short-range simulation and live radar to track the rare spring-like weather in the midst of winter.

The complex weather system entering the Appalachian mountains has been responsible for thunderstorms and a severe weather outbreak in the south. While the energy has peaked, some of it will be left over as it crosses our region tonight. The net result as Low Pressure passes through maybe some thunder and lightning. Meanwhile, upper-level energy will catch up to produce a few hours of snow in the mountains.  Let’s take a look.

IR Satellite Loop

2 Hours ending at 2:30 PM

There is a lot of moisture and energy with this storm system. Just missing the cold air for now. 

Afternoon Surface Weather

Some showers and thunderstorms have already moved across the Chesapeake Bay. More is expected.
Low Pressure will track across the mountains this afternoon and across Maryland overnight.

Thunderstorm In The Afternoon

The first rumbles were heard between Annapolis and Baltimore around 3 PM.

Storm Forecast 

4 PM THU to 1 PM SUN – ECMWF Model

This storm will race through and likely be ending Friday morning. After the brief snow builds in across our mountains, there is a chance for a Nor’easter to form and briefly clip eastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod with their first true burst of snow this winter.

Live Radar Widget

Use this to compare to the forecast maps below.

Radar Simulaiton 

4 PM THU to 6 AM FRI – HRRR Model

See the key snapshots below.

Showers will be expanding through the late afternoon and evening. The heaviest rain across metro areas will more likely be after 8 PM. 

Snapshot at 10 PM

There may be an hour buffer for model error, but this evening is when we are most likely to get the heavy band of rain. This may contain some pockets of lighting and thunder.

Snapshot at 4 AM

Low Pressure will be passing through central Maryland. The core energy may contain the last burst of heavy rain and isolated rumbles of thunder.

At this time farther west, the snow will be developing in the mountains.

Snow Forecast

This is a big holiday weekend for skiing and Snowboarding. The good news is that big mountains will get a fresh coating PLUS cold air to help with machine snow and grooming through the weekend.

Seven Springs, Wisp, Snowshoe and the vicinity will be in good shape!

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