January 9 2023
Monday Morning Report
Last night I asked the question if snow falls overnight and you sleep through it, then it melts, did it really happen? Well, it did happen, and I wanted to recap the radar simply for posterity. We spent a week talking about this weather system that was never expected to amount to much. However, there is now documentation online that shows the sporadic evolution of the modeling and the results.
Here is a brief review, followed by the regular weather report.
One week ago, this looked like two systems with a stronger one today. It ended up being a few hours in duration, but it did happen. As expected, temps remained above freezing, so roads remained wet. If there was any stickage, it would have been on the grass, decks, or car tops.
There was a coating of snow and traffic problems in Pennsylvania north of York around Harrisburg.
@JustinWeather New Cumberland PA at 0430 pic.twitter.com/OcSIT9kCG7
— Michael Cadden (@MikeC2083) January 9, 2023
Westminster to Bel Air and north…
There was a brief heavy burst of snow. If temps were colder, it would have been an issue. Thanks to a warm week and local temps remaining above freezing… any slushy coating quickly melted.
This looks more like the HRRR than the NAM. I hope this sounds familiar: It verified about 1 hour earlier than projected. This is why I often suggest that and will continue to do so with future weather events.
Very close to the radar snapshot above, just an hour too late.
This projection was overdone!
Where is the cold air? There is not much around now as we enter the climatologically coldest part of the year.
Our little weather system is moving off the coast, allowing for seasonal colder winds to move in. That gusty wind will be noticeable today.
Steady winds: 15-20 mph.
Gusts to 25 mph + at times.
These numbers are near seasonal average highs. We should see some sun breaking back out.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record 10ºF in 1970
SNOW: 4.1” 1996
Normal High in Baltimore: 43ºF
Record 75ºF 1973
A little closer to normal.
In the reverse of today, Tuesday should bring more clouds in the afternoon.
I give in to the warmer solution for the next storm. This will track to our west and north, allowing southerly winds to move in. Storm Animation:
The result may start with rain showers Thursday, then steady and heavier rain Friday.
Behind the storm, we may see enough energy to bring in some flurries with the colder air.
The trend is your friend, so we will continue to see mild storms followed by colder air.
Is winter done? Hardly! Most of our snow falls between January 15 to February 28. This mild trend is something we talked about in December. I still see a pattern change AND continue to point out that it often comes a little later than when first shown on the models. I will have a report on that this evening.
Closer to normal, but no arctic cold. More on the updated outlook in my evening report.
December 5th Snow In Baltimore And The Start Of Faith In The Flakes FITF
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption
Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
