December 31 2022

Saturday Morning Report

Then one foggy New Year’s Eve…  There is a Dense Fog Advisory this morning as light drizzle and warmer air is moving in ahead of our next storm. It should burn off later this morning, then we will track bands of rain through the rest of the day. It may be heavy at times into the evening, then clear out close to midnight. 

Below we will compare two short range models for rain timeline and intensity.

Dense Fog Advisory

This advisory has been expanded to include all of central Maryland east of the Mountains and into Delaware. This includes I-95 between Richmond, Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia.

Visibility may be down under 1 mile hindering travel. 

Morning Temperatures 

With the moisture, the air has warmed mostly to the 40s and 50s.

Headlines

• New Year’s Eve: Rainy afternoon and evening. 
• 2023: Clearing and Mild New Year Day!
• Ravens Game: Much more comfortable.
• Warmer Mid Week, Colder Next Weekend 

Surface Weather

Thick fog in the Mid Atlantic this morning.

Low Pressure is trying to form near New Orleans and will ride up the east coast. That is our rain maker today, enhanced by the cold front catching up to it this evening.

4 PM Temperatures 

I believe we will end up warmer than this model plot, with a chance to reach the lower 60s.

Radar Simulations 

Let’s Compare the NAM 3Km and HRRR Models. There are similarities with more rain in the afternoon and evening. However, the split is in the intensity and end time.  At this point, I am not sure which one has a better handle. So by showing both, I will follow up this afternoon with an update and see which one is more valid. This is as much for my research as it is for you to gain confidence for future events. 

NAM 3 Km Animation:

Noon to Midnight 

Key Timeframes

4 PM

Steady rain for most of the region. Here we see heavy bands developing between Washington, Annapolis, and Baltimore.

9 PM

Two bands of rain: 1) Heavy showers around the Bay (Annapolis and Baltimore)

2) Rain in the mountains.

Midnight

Can we dry out in time? Still some spotty showers, but this model pushed the bulk of rain away by this time. 

HRRR Model

This plot is more aggressive with Low Pressure developing with intensity and heavy rain in central and southern Maryland this evening and tonight.

Animation: Noon to 11 PM

Key Timeframes

4 PM

This is when steady rain is expected to move in across the region (after 2 PM). This is later than the NAM 3 Km.

9 PM

Here we see that cold front more active with heavy rain and possibly some thunder across central Maryland and the Capital District into Southern Maryland.

11 PM

I’ve identified where this plots Low Pressure forming on the front. That enhances the heavy rain for a rough last few hours of the year for Delmarva and the beaches.

This shows the back edge of showers ending for Baltimore and Annapolis by midnight.

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY December 31

Normal Low in Baltimore:  27ºF

Record -1ºF in 1880

SNOW: 3.2” 1970

Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF

Record 72ºF 1992

Polar Vortex Report

In case you missed this, I explain the stable circulation now and disruption forecast by mid January. Compare to 3 recent winters that were similar: Record warmth was followed by record snow.

New Year’s Day (Sunday)

Morning 

Afternoon 

If we have a run for 60ºF, it will depend on how much sun we get.

Storm Animation: Tuesday Through Sunday

The ECMWF Model shows the next storm moving in for us on Wednesday, after surging warmer air in the 60s.

Wait for it…. 

The extended view into the weekend does now show a hint of some snow showers. This is NOT the coastal storm the GFS has shown yesterday, but it is trending towards something. 

My Thoughts:

Yes, we will have a warm week. NO, winter is not over. Far from it. We can get some snow showers or ‘something’ organized within a warm pattern. The hint of snow next weekend is NOT the pattern change. I still see that ‘evolving’ in the middle of the month, then trending colder and more wintry for the latter half of January into February.

FITF 

7 Day Forecast

The focus for now is on the warm up. 

Faith in the Flakes Gear

What is Faith in the Flakes?

It began with my son in 2009

December 5th Snow In Baltimore And The Start Of Faith In The Flakes FITF

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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