December 9 2022
Friday Morning Update
We are changing the weather pattern but this transition may be less dramatic than expected. The computer modeling has failed us, especially with what I showed you earlier this week. This colder air mass is dry and slower. So the attempt for light snow tonight will not happen as it runs into a road block.
The next system will arrive on Sunday, and if you travel into Pennsylvania there may be some light snow there.
Next week will be colder, just below seasonal ‘norms’. There is a signal for a winter event on Days 7 and 8 of the outlook. Because of the model fail this week, I am sharing this with you with a spoonful of uncertainty.
Strong High Pressure centered in northern Ontario is the source of our air today. This is stronger and slower, which will hold off that next system.
A band of snow is breaking out across the Upper Midwest this morning. If you are flying to Minneapolis, Madison, or Chicago there may be delays.
Meanwhile, there is a band of storms to be watched between Dallas, Memphis, and Atlanta.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 31ºF
Record 4ºF in 1876
SNOW: 2.8 inches in 2017
Normal High in Baltimore: 49ºF
Record 73ºF 1966
The reason we will NOT get those snow flurries (or more) is High Pressure settling in. The source of our cold air is a stronger air mass that will act as a block to the next weather system. So it will not be able to cross the mountains.
Chilly air settling into our region with most near or below freezing.
These temperatures will be about 5 degrees below average.
ANIMATION:
GFS Model: 7 AM Sat to 7 PM Sun
The next system behind it is pulling in the energy, and appears to be enough to break down the wall.
At this point we could see some overnight flurries or sleet (very light), and light rain on Sunday.
The chance for snow is more likely into central Pennsylvania, and might affect some travel in the morning.
Sunday Afternoon
This snapshot highlights the likely light rain for most of us. The snow chance with impact may be west and north of Harrisburg in PA.
NAM 3 Km Model Midnight to 1 PM
There is a signal that flurries might attempt to get going, but generally there will be light rain expanding in the morning through midday, while a wintry mix or snow is more likely into Pennsylvania.
If this arrives sooner, we might need to look for some sleet into the colder inland Maryland counties around sunrise, so stay tuned.
Is this one? We can see on multiple models a storm system arriving at the end of next week. My confidence is LOW with any model output more than 1 week away. So we will watch this with restricted caution for any trends.
That global pattern IS CHANGING! That has been the plan and it is showing up. The surface reflection with a winter storm is the hard part to pin down. This is the time when I stay with the computer guidance to see which model is more persistent and accurate. This happens every winter and will help give us support for the next systems through the winter. Hope you stay along for the ride.
Faith in the Flakes.
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I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption
Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
