Hurricane Ian Stronger Ahead Of Landfall On South Carolina Today Friday September 30

Friday Morning September 30, 2022

At 5 AM Hurricane Ian has shown a few things. The winds are stronger at 85 mph.  However, the satellite image shows that it is losing its tropical characteristics, and is no longer symmetrical. The cloud and wind field has stretched out to the north as it interacts with land of the Eastern US and Canadian High Pressure. Tropical Storm Force Winds extend 485 miles away from the center. That is HUGE!

It is expected to make landfall at or just after noon today! The track has shifted just a little bit farther north of Charleston. This may help that town miss the worst of the storm surge. See the new map below. 

IR Satellite Loop

Snapshot

Ian: Sep 30 Friday Morning

Quick Stats at 5 AM

• Winds are 85 mph
• Moving to the NNE 9 mph
• Located 145 miles SSE of Charleston, SC
• HUGE SIZE
• Hurricane Force Winds extends 70 miles from the center
• Tropical Storm force winds extend 485 miles from the center

LIVE RADAR/LIGHTNING WIDGET

Storm Simulation

8 AM to Midnight – ECMWF

Forecast Winds

8 AM to Midnight – ECMWF Model

Wind And Storm Surge Focus

The most destructive part of a landfalling hurricane is the storm surge. We just saw that in Florida (and I have included two videos on the pop out box here on this page).  

Here is a look at the forecast and IF landfall is just northeast Charleston SC… Who may get the strongest or weakest part of the storm. 

National Hurricane Center Track/Cone

This timing is about 1 to 2 hours slower than the European Model 

Coastal South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

* East of Cape Fear to Surf City North Carolina

Mid Atlantic View

Reminder About The Storm Structure:

The right side is stronger due to winds moving onshore FROM the ocean or Onshore with the forward movement of the storm.

The left side is weaker with winds FROM the land or Offshore and opposite of the forward movement of the storm.

Storm Surge Forecast

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Cape Fear North Carolina

* Neuse River North Carolina

* St. Johns River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

* North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico River

* Cape Fear River

EXPLORE MORE:

See how the Carolina Coastline was shaped by thousands of years of storms and how it can catch more or get protected further up the coast. 

How Hurricanes Interact With Land And Helped Shape The US East Coast

Forecast: Storm Simulation 

8 AM Friday to 8 Pm Sunday

Heavy rain spreads inland and reaches Maryland to start the weekend

(I will have a local look at the Mid Atlantic in my morning report)

Top 5 Landfalling Storms With Winds 155 mph or Higher Include: 

185 mph in 1935 – Labor Day Day (unnamed)

175 mph in 1969 – Camile

165 mph in 1992 – Andrew

160 mph in 2018 – Michael

155 mph in 2023 – Ian

Storm Name History/Retirement

Since 1954, 94 storms have had their names retired.

I named storms are 13 of them.

Since 2000, 44 storm names were retired.

Of them, 11 began with the letter I. This is going to be number 12.

PATTERN CHANGER?

Hurricane Ian May Help Cooler Pattern Change: Monitor For Atmospheric Memory This Winter

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30

NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again

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