Watch Hurricane Ian Landfall As Cat With 155 mph Winds

Wednesday September 28 2022

The eye of Hurricane Ian has sustained winds to 155 mph making this a very dangerous Category 4, almost Category 5. That status will not matter because this will be devastating! A new High Wind Warning has been issued for Southwest Florida for winds over 100 mph in and around the eye wall.

This will rank among the top 5 strongest storms to hit the mainland US on record. See that list below.

A new Storm Surge map shows potential for an 18-foot water level rise in and around Fort Myers!

Also below are the Live Radar, new Satellite Loop, and Forecast Radar Simulation showing the eye reaching the East Coast Thursday evening and possibly regaining strength over the water.

The National Hurricane has been leading their updates with headlines like this:

…EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC

WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…

Hurricane Ian: Sep 28 Wednesday Set Up

Doppler Radar Snapshot at 11 AM

This split screen shows the Reflectivity on the left and Velocity on the right.

Winds Estimated 174 mph gust!

The eye wall is expected to make first landfall close to noon. The eye itself may take another 1 to 3 hours to reach the beaches.

ONSHORE Winds are pushing water in and UP!

Offshore Winds around Tampa are actually pushing the water away. Historic drainage from harbors is also occurring on the north side of the eye.

11 AM – Category 4

Quick Stats

• Winds are 155 mph (sustained at the surface)
• Moving to the NNE 9 mph
• Located 75 miles from Naples, 105 miles from Punta Gorda
• Hurricane Force Winds reach 40 miles from the center.
• Tropical Storm force winds extend 175 miles from the center.

Visible Satellite Snapshot. See the IR (color enhanced) loop below.

Landfalling Storms With Winds 155 mph or Higher Include: 

1. 185 mph in 1935 – Labor Day Day (unnamed)
2. 175 mph in 1969 – Camile
3. 165 mph in 1992 – Andrew
4. 160 mph in 2018 – Michael

Storm Name History/Retirement

Since 1954, 94 storm names have been retired.

I named storms are 13 of them.

Since 2000, 44 storm names were retired.

Of them, 11 began with the letter I. This is going to be number 12.

That eye will make landfall on Southwest Florida today. The final track has shifted and appears to be heading to Fort Myers with a Storm Surge up to 12 Ft! 

This is better news for Tampa, but what is about to happen is still horrific. The National Hurricane has been leading their updates with headlines like this: …EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…

Live Radar below:

IR Satellite Loop

The pop out video has a composite of different spectrums this morning.

Landfall Forecast

LIVE RADAR WIDGET

Radar Simulation: NAM 3 Km Model

2 PM Wed Sep 28 to 10 PM Thu Sep 29

The eye is forecast to cross Florida and reach the coast near Daytona Beach on Thursday evening. It will weaken to a Tropical Storm, but could restrengthen over the water before hitting again near Savannah, Georgia.

Forecast Track: Florida Peninsula 

It may take up to 36 hours to cross Florida and possibly reemerge over the water of the Atlantic near Daytona Beach. This is north of Titusville and Cape Canaveral keeping the strongest side hitting there. NASA has already postponed the Artemis Launch again for this storm. 

NEW Storm Surge Forecast 

With the upgraded wind, the wall of water has increased as well.

Yes, up as high as 18 Feet for Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor.

Storm Surge Model Estimated Flooding

I can’t overstate how serious the storm surge threat is in southwest Florida. #Ian will drive deadly surge into Cape Coral and Fort Myers, placing much of the area under water. If you live near the ocean in a surge zone, this is your last chance to leave… pic.twitter.com/FefKkoltd3

— Evan Fisher (@EFisherWX) September 28, 2022

STORM SURGE Report From NHC

The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor…12-18 ft

* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood…6-10 ft

* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee…8-12 ft

* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable…5-8 ft

* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay…4-6 ft

* Suwannee River to Anclote River…3-5 ft

* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the Dry Tortugas…3-5 ft

* Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River including St. Johns River…3-5 ft

* St. Johns River south of Julington…2-4 ft

* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge…2-4 ft

* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key…2-4 ft

* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line…1-3 ft

* North of South Santee River to Surf City NC…1-3 ft

Watches and Warnings

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

* Dry Tortugas

* Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo

* Tampa Bay

* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West

* Dry Tortugas

* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River

* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

* Indian Pass to the Anclote River

* All of the Florida Keys

* Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet

* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Little River Inlet

* Flamingo to Chokoloskee

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida Bay

* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

Forecast Track: Wider View

If this does reach the Atlantic, it will pick up more water in the form of rain and produce a storm surge for South Carolina.  There may be a curve Northwest, then inland and eventually track north to the Mid Atlantic. 

Flash Flood Risk With Second Landfall

Heavy rain will move up the coast. 

Click here to see my morning post for Maryland and Mid Atlantic rain through early next week.

PATTERN CHANGER?

Hurricane Ian May Help Cooler Pattern Change: Monitor For Atmospheric Memory This Winter

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30

NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again

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