September 16 Heating Up This Weekend Plus Tropical Storm Fiona Watch

September 16, 2022

Friday Morning Update 

High Pressure is in control, which has allowed a clear sky and widespread cooling. Many thermometers are in the 50s this morning. We should recover this afternoon back to the lower 80s. The trend this weekend will be warming and then hot again into next week. 

Temperatures 

Smokey Sunrise Again?

Sunrise is 6:48 AM

Wildfire smoke has made its way across the country and has reached us very high in the atmosphere. The model plots show the density of smoke in our region this morning. 

Sunrise (smoke enhanced) From Thursday

Model Plot at 7 AM

This was the sunrise on Thursday in Maryland. The deep orange color was the result of the smoke helping to enhance the refraction of sunlight. We could see something similar this morning and again this weekend.

Morning Surface Weather

High Pressure is in control and will remain through the weekend. This will keep our weather dry, however there may be some clouds mixing in this afternoon.

Afternoon Temperatures:

Another Spectacular Day!

Tropical Storm Fiona

Winds are holding at 50 mph as Fiona has run into wind sheer. Yesterday this was seen on satellite when the surface circulation became separated from the main convection. This was Thursday afternoon:

Naked swirl alert #Fiona pic.twitter.com/X7QnEf0jlr

— Mike Ventrice (@MJVentrice) September 15, 2022

Snapshot

This demonstrates the problem the Atlantic has had generating storms all season. There is a lot of wind sheer. Stronger upper level winds are blowing from the west, cutting the top off the storm, exposing the center, and limiting further intensification.

This morning, the storm is trying hard to reorganize and wrap the convection back to the center. So heavy rain is still expected when this crosses the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

Rainfall Forecast: 4 to 6 inches with as much as 10 inches.

Forecast Track

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla

* Saba and St. Eustatius

* St. Maarten

* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

* U.S. Virgin Islands

* British Virgin Islands

Watching Next: Week East Coast

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY September 16

Normal Low in Baltimore:  59ºF

Record 41ºF in 1873

Normal High in Baltimore: 80ºF

Record 98ºF 1991

September Begins Meteorological Autumn

Climate Data/Weather Stats For The Month

September Starts Meteorological Autumn: Weather Climate Stats For Maryland at Baltimore

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

Saturday Temperatures 

Morning

Afternoon 

7 Day Forecast

Temps heat up for our ‘second summer’. The next chance for rain appears to be early next week, and that risk is low.

In Case You Missed It: Seem Early Winter Outlooks

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

COMPARE TO THE  PAST

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30

NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again

Forecast From Colorado State University

Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

Related Posts

NOAA Study: Reducing Air Pollution INCREASED Tropical Storms

Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days

Rainbow Ice Cave In Mt Rainier

Rainbow Ice Cave In Mt. Rainier A Very Rare Find: Photos And Video