Naked Circulation of Tropical Storm Fiona: Watch Posted For Virgin Islands And Puerto Rico

Thursday September 15, 2022

Evening Update

In this record breaking slow hurricane season, we are in the peak timing and just one day ago got our 6th named storm. Warnings are in place for the Leeward Islands and Watches have been issued for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Up to 10 inches of rain may fall there. I swear my headline is PG! See below. 

Tropical Storm Fiona rapidly developed in one day, and reached 60 mph winds today. Then it hit a snag. The core circulation earlier today appears to have popped out and got dislodged from the Deep Convection (tall clouds with heaviest rain).  This was captured on visible satellite with the thin view of clouds circulating and moving well west of the main moisture see below.

Naked Circulation Satellite Loop

Naked swirl alert #Fiona pic.twitter.com/X7QnEf0jlr

— Mike Ventrice (@MJVentrice) September 15, 2022

Snapshot

This demonstrates the problem the Atlantic has had generating storms all season. There is a lot of wind sheer. Stronger upper level winds are blowing from the west, cutting the top off the storm, exposing the center, and limiting further intensification.

Thursday Night Set Up

Tropical Storm Fiona 

• Winds are 60 mph
• Moving to the West at 14 mph
• Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend 140 miles from the center

National Hurricane Center Update

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-

LOCATION…16.1N 56.1W

ABOUT 385 MI…615 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

From NOAA/National Hurricane Center

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla

* Saba and St. Eustatius

* St. Maarten

* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

* U.S. Virgin Islands

* British Virgin Islands

STORM SURGE:  Localized coastal flooding will be possible along the coasts of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in areas of onshore winds Saturday into Sunday.

Forecast Intensity

The majority of models keep this as a Tropical Storm. However, it should get better organized and regain more strength wrapping around the center again on Friday.

There are some models that show Hurricane intensity over this weekend, but that does not seem likely. Winds are most likely to remain at or below 65 mph.

Tropical Forecast Track/Cone

The Tropical Storm is expected to reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend.

WEATHER WIDGET: Wind Forecast 

RAINFALL:  Fiona is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico:  4 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches across eastern Puerto Rico.

Eastern Hispaniola: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Considerable flood impacts are possible across eastern portions of Puerto Rico.

Wide View

While there is a lot that can change in 5 days, this is expected to curve north of Hispaniola and then become more of an interest for The Bahamas and Eastern US. 

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