January 19 Snow Report And Grade My Forecast
Monday January 20 2025 The winter weather event that crossed the Mid Atlantic states on Sunday was the precursor of a Polar Air Mass invading much of the nation. While…
Hail Storms Wednesday Afternoon: Videos and Radar Update
Storm Forecast
Maryland Weather
Severe Weather
video
August 17 Wednesday Afternoon Update
One thing that keeps proving itself all summer is that we have continued to get storms arriving earlier and more active than model guidance has suggested. In morning report I showed the simulation with storms starting later, but hedged my bets for them AFTER 2 PM. They still developed even earlier and are more robust… Especially in Baltimore City where they were accompanied with hail. This was captured on a few videos shown below.
Let’s back up to the first storm: This snapshot was captured from Doppler Radar at 1:20 PM as a storm erupted over Baltimore and produce pockets of hail.
Doppler Radar Snapshot
Note that hail must be OVER 1 inch in diameter (the size of a quarter) for a storm to be considered severe and get a warning.
Video From Javier Guzman
Baltimore City
Hail Video From Paul Yokemick
Baltimore City
More Storms Expected…
Live Radar and Lighting Widget
See the forecast notes below…
This is part of that coastal Nor’easter type storm in New England. While warm at the surface, the air aloft is cold enough to support hail, and we have more storms expected through this evening.
Doppler Radar Snapshot at 3:15 PM
I am showing this snapshot for scattered storms with the bulk along the northeastern part of the Chesapeake Bay.
I would watch the cells in Lancaster County to drop south into Northern Harford and Cecil Counties as well.
THE MODELS ARE MISSING THIS
So when you see the simulation below, note that it is already wrong…
UPDATE at 3:50 PM
Pay Attention To This Line Across Southern PA to Northern Maryland
The movement of the cells is indicated but is not consistent. This is due to weak upper level winds guiding them… But the cells in coastal Harford Count are expanding Southeast…. Although the movement is drifting southward.
RADAR SIMULATION
HRRR Model 2 PM to Midnight
I am showing this simply for the movement and display of showers through this evening and fading by 10 PM.
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*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
