Sara Just Named As The 17th Tropical Storm Of The Season
Wednesday, November 14 2024 Tropical Storm Sara was just named in the Western Caribbean. With a minimal 40 mph wind speed, it will hug the Central American coastline and make…
Flood Watch Expanded August 10: Updated Radar Simulation And Expectations
Flooding
Maryland Weather
Severe Weather
Forecast
Warnings
August 10 2022
Wednesday 3 PM Update
The Expanded Flood Watch is simply a matter of confirming what we discussed in the last two reports, and for that matter all summer: Computer model guidance has been underperforming. We have been getting more storms, tracking sooner and farther north than shown.
Earlier I showed the comparison between the NAM 3 Km and HRRR Models. The HRRR is better, but still off, as I will show you below.
From this we can extrapolate that more storm cells will affect metro areas sooner, with more areas that could be impacted with flooding.
Flood Watch Updated Map
This now includes Frederick County in Maryland westward through Garrett County, as well as northern Virginia and West Virginia in the I-81 region.
Not included, but still should be on the look out: Carroll, northern Baltimore, Harford, and Cecil Counties.
Alert Reminder
For Flooding, Severe Storms (with or without a tornado)
A Watch means it ‘might’ happen.
A WARNING means it is ‘HAPPENING NOW’. This is more urgent and tracking an event across towns with more specific times.
Any storm may produce dangerous lightning and even downpours to reduce visibility to near zero. If driving when you encounter it, just pull over with flashers and wait until it passes.
3 PM Doppler Radar Snapshot
3 PM HRRR Model Plot
This is the latest projection (compare to the Doppler Radar Snapshot above). It is missing a lot of activity around Hagerstown, Martinsburg and Winchester…
7 PM HRRR Model Plot
This is when the main event is ‘projected’ to reach metro Baltimore.
Please CONSIDER that it could be an hour earlier based on the trend this summer.
Model Animation: 3 PM to Midnight
Live Lightning and Radar Widget
This is what is actually happening with the latest scan.. Should be updated roughly every 5 minutes.
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7 Day Forecast
Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30
NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again
Forecast From Colorado State University
Related Posts
NOAA Study: Reducing Air Pollution INCREASED Tropical Storms
Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days
Recent Storm Reports
May 16 Large Hail Videos And Storm Tracking Map
Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media
Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist
Twitter: @JustinWeather
Instagram: justinweather
*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30
NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again
Forecast From Colorado State University
Related Posts
NOAA Study: Reducing Air Pollution INCREASED Tropical Storms
Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days
Recent Storm Reports
May 16 Large Hail Videos And Storm Tracking Map
Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media
Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist
Twitter: @JustinWeather
Instagram: justinweather
*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
