Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 08/15/2022 11:50:02 am
Temperature

75°

Mostly Cloudy

63°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

66%

Feels Like

75°

Wind (VRB)

6mph

Air Pressure

29.99

Sun
Sun Rise

06:20 AM

Sun Set

08:02 PM

Day Length

13:42 Hours

Difference

2 min 14 sec loss

Moon
Moon Rise

10:21 PM

Moon Set

10:16 AM

Next: Last Quarter

Aug 19,2022

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

66°

85°

Average High
Record Low

49°


(1964)

103°


(1988)
Record High
Current Conditions

Afternoon Storms: Wednesday Radar Simulations And Live Widget

Maryland Weather
Severe Weather
Forecast

July 27 2022

Wednesday Afternoon Update

We are still under the influence boundary that will try to send showers our way. This nearly stalled, otherwise known as a quasi-stationary front, has waves of disturbances that can triggers clusters or lines of rain and storms. 

These are not easy to track, especially in the current environment of poorly performing short range computer model guidance.  That is why I have made not of ‘suggestions’ rather than any promises.  Yesterday for example failed to fully materialize. 

Today, it does look like one of these impulses will move though with a line of showers and thunderstorms.  We can already see showers developing (at 2 PM).

At best guess, metro areas can expect this to arrive between 4 PM and 7 PM.  Below is the comparison to show the similarities and differences between the NAM 3 Km and HRRR Models, plus the Love Radar and Lightning Widget to track right here.

Afternoon Set Up

 

Doppler Radar Snapshot

Already seeing some showers developing in the mountains south of Hagerstown. Watch this region to shift east… which is closer to the NAM 3 Km timing below.

 

Short Range Forecasting

The good news is that there is some agreement with the two short range models. The difference is the timing. Here we see developing storms into metro Washington and Baltimore.

  • NAM 3 Km Model: (earlier) Close to 5 PM

  • HRRR Model: (later) Closer to 7 PM

See the animation of each product below the Live Radar/Lightning Widget

 

NAM 3 Km (earlier for metro areas)

 

HRRR Model (2 hours later for metro areas)

 

Live Lightning and Radar Widget

 

 

Radar Simualtions..

Here we can see both models in motion supporting a brief flare up then scattered showers through midnight. 

NAM 3 Km: 2 PM to Midnight 

July-27-weather-radar-simulation-nam

 

HRRR Model 2 PM to Midnight 

July-27-weather-radar-simulation-hrrr

NOTICE:

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7 Day Forecast

 

 

Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30

NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again

 

 

Forecast From Colorado State University

Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

 

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Recent Storm Reports

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Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Twitter: @JustinWeather

Instagram: justinweather

 

 

*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell.  I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. 

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. 

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. 

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.