November 26 Rain Ends Then Gusty Winds And Larger Thanksgiving Storm
November 26, 2024 Tuesday Morning Report There is a very busy weather week ahead for the holiday. We started off the week with a chilly morning and mild afternoon on…
Severe Storm Risk Upgraded For Baltimore And North Monday July 18
NOAA
Flooding
National Weather Service
Severe Weather
Forecast
Warnings
12:41 PM Monday July 18
The expectation of storm producing flooding today is due to the high humidity and a nearby frontal boundary. The conditions appear ripe to enhance those storms, as shown on the simulations in my prior report.
NOAA has upgraded the Severe Storm Risk for metro Baltimore in Central Maryland through Southern Pennsylvania. This means there is a higher chance that some of the storms cells may reach severe limits and we can prepare for a clutter of possible warnings with alerts on these storm this afternoon and evening.
Note: The NWS Watch Flood Watch Area (Central Maryland) is below. I do believe the flood chance extends to York and Lancaster Counties in PA.
NOAA Severe Storm Risk
The Slight Risk is not a promise, but enhances the potential for individual storm cells to produce:
Any storm may have
- Dangerous lightning
- Flash Flooding with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hours
- Damaging Wind over 58 mph
- Large Hail over 1 inch diameter, the size of. Quarter.
- Isolated Tornados (a 2% chance)
NEW Radar Simulation
HRRR Model
Since my first report this morning I mentioned that the line may slow down or stall. The latest update here shows that may happen along the Maryland and Pennsylvania line. That will be the late afternoon event.
Then it moved through metro Baltimore between 6 PM and 8 PM. I still think we should allow a buffer to arrive a little faster than shown here, and maybe more coverage.
Then the line may slow or stall again around Rt 50 and parts of southern Maryland near the Bay Bridge and south through midnight.
—> slider 2 PM to Midnight
Animations (Compare the HRRR to NAM 3Km)
HRRR (same as slider above in motion)
2 PM to Midnight
NAM 3 Km
2PM to Midnight
Rainfall Potential
Flood Watch- Click For The Full Report
Note: This is the NWS Watch Area… I do believe the flood chance extends to York and Lancaster Counties in PA.
Live Lightning and Radar Widget
Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30
NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again
Forecast From Colorado State University
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*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
