Winter Storm Warning For The Outer Banks And Extreme Cold By Morning
Tuesday January 21 2025 Afternoon Update The snowstorm crossing the Gulf Coast States is truly historic. For many areas this will be the most snow since February 14, 1895. Yes,…
Friday Afternoon July 8 Update
With the expectation of heavy rain returning tonight, a Flood Watch has been issued for Central Maryland and portions of Virginia. This includes metro Baltimore, Annapolis, and Washington DC. The heaviest rain may be during Saturday morning, but we will watch the band of rain slowly slip south and impact the beaches through the entire day.
Surface Weather
A very muggy air mass and complex frontal complex will be joining forces with energy aloft to develop heavier rain funneling into the Mid Atlantic tonight and Saturday. Central Maryland to Delaware is on track to get the core of this system and max impact. The heavier rain may be in place from sunrise Saturday to mid afternoon.
It is important to note that the last storm produced 3 to 5 inches for some areas and left others nearly dry. So there are places that need rain, while others could flood easier with soggy soil.
The outlook from the National Weather Service indicates that up to 7 inches of rain are possible where slow moving or repeating cells traverse.
Here is a look at the simulation with the best potential timeline and forecast rainfall total maps comparing 3 compare models.
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Notes:
Average rainfall amounts around 1 to 3 inches are expected, but localized amounts around 4 to 7 inches in heavier showers and thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts around 1 to 3 inches within an hour or two are possible in areas where the heaviest rainfall occurs.
The best chance for the heaviest rainfall will be overnight into Saturday morning.
Save This Severe Weather Page:
Click the link or see it on the Home Page to see ALL Local Alert (Watches and Warnings) will be posted on this page. You can click on each weather element for the details as flooding and even some severe storms may be tracked.
Live Radar And Lightning Widget
Compare to the simulation forecast animations below
Radar Simulaitons
Midnight 12 AM to 7 AM Saturday
Rain will be developing over the mountains and into the western/northern suburbs this evening.
I broke down this time frame to show the heavy rain developing overnight and sitting over Baltimore, Annapolis, and Washington at day break!
8 AM to 10 PM
Here we can see the heaviest band of rain crossing the Bay to Delmarva by noon.
Mid Day may add in some flooding between Salisbury, Dover, and the beaches through the afternoon.
Showers may linger around Baltimore through 4 PM, with a chance to dry out to the north and west. More showers and steady rain will continue to the south.
Rainfall Forecasts
Comparing the NAM, European Model ECMWF, and GFS Models we can see a converging similarity of the heaviest rain from Central Maryland to Delmarva.
NAM 3 Km
ECMWF Model
GFS Model
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*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
