Rafael Becomes A Major Hurricane Before Hitting Cuba
Wednesday, November 6 2024 Hurricane Rafael has become the 5th major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Tropical Season. It had winds of 115mph, making it a Category 3 Hurricane. This…
July 1 2022
Friday Afternoon Update
The heat and humidity are living up to expectations today. In fact while I mentioned storms firing up early, they are over achieving the forecast models. But if you have been following my updates, this has been the case for months.
Here is a look at the early afternoon comparison of radar snapshot and model plots or misfires. I did include one simulation for good measure to compare to the live radar and lightning widget.
Alert Reminder:
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings will be issued by NOAA when a storm may contain winds over 58 mph, large hail over 1 inch diameter, and any one could produce dangerous lightning or flash flooding.
UPDATE: Severe T’Storm Watch was issued (late) until 7 PM
1 PM Radar Snapshot
Here was the radar view I saw as I came in from my training today.
The storms were firing up, what appeared to be earlier than model guidance.
Compare To Shore Range Models
The HRRR Model is the rapid update and had the cluster west of Frederick, MD. But it still missed out and the cells developing new Westminster to York and Lancaster.
The NAM 3 Km Model was even more vacant of storms, yet oddly developed more during the afternoon. This is the product simulation I have below.
2 PM Snapshots
Temperatures
Doppler Radar
Radar Loop 1 PM to 2 PM
So far this has been a Frederick to Westminster in. MD to York and Lancaster in PA. But it will be expanding east.
Hail has been 1/2″ to over 1″
Radar Simulation 2 PM to 10 PM
This is the NAM 3 Km Model, which already is wrong. But we can use this as guide for timing the flare up across metro areas.
My suggestion is between 3 PM and 6 PM across metro Baltimore, then fading by sunset.
Southern Maryland (south of Annapolis) and The Beaches should miss this round today.
Live Radar and Lightning Widget
Saturday
More humidity means a warmer morning, but maybe not as hot in the afternoon with storms. The risk for severe weather is centered on our region.
Severe Storm Risk
Morning
Afternoon
Radar Simulation 4 PM to 10 PM
This looks like an issue mainly between the mountains and I-95/Metro Baltimore. It may reach Annapolis and Easton by 10 PM.
Farther south and to the beaches should remain dry.
Looking Ahead:
Sunday will be cooler, but we ‘may’ see showers linger by the beaches. The overnight model guidance did move that farther south, but I want to see one more run before dropping that chance.
As of now, July 4th is looking good!
Sunday
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Beach Forecast
7 Day Forecast
After storms that may turn severe on Saturday, it will be followed by a cooler Sunday. The July 4th- Monday should heat up again, but remain dry.
Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on Tuesday.
Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30
NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again
Forecast From Colorado State University
Related Posts
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Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days
Recent Storm Reports
May 16 Large Hail Videos And Storm Tracking Map
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*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
