May 6 Weather Some Thunderstorms Today Then Another Round Thursday And Friday
Tuesday, May ,6 2025 The active weather has shifted, but the results are still with us. Areas that got heavy rain yesterday, more than likely have fog this morning. Some…
Severe Storm Arriving Early: Tuesday June 14 First Update
Severe
rain timeline
tornado
Severe Weather
wind
Warnings
5 AM June 14 2022
Tuesday Morning Update
This is going to be a very fluid morning, so please keep checking back for updates. The Mesoscale Convective Complex that tore through the Great Lakes and Midwest last night is arriving in the Mid Atlantic… A FEW HOURS EARLY!
See the live interactive radar and lightning below!
Weather Headlines:
- Severe Warnings Are Likely!
- Timing: Even with the early leading edge, the main event will be 8 AM to 12 PM
- Damaging Winds are the most likely element this morning.
- Local Flooding with heavy downpours
- Dangerous Lightning has already been identical on Radar
- An Isolated Tornado is possible
Severe Storm Reports (as of 4 AM)
This does suggest we have a derecho in progress. I hesitate to use that term until absolutely certain due to the history of what our region has experienced. That are not all the same, so it does not promise a repeat of that 2012 event.
Satellite Loop: 2 Hours Ending 5 AM
My report last night had the HRRR Model showing metro Baltimore and Washington getting this between 8 AM and 10 AM. But I woke up and saw this already reaching Hagerstown at 4 AM.
Snapshot at 4 AM
Here’s the Problem…. The Short Range Modeling still did not have this here yet…
HRRR Model Forecast at 4 AM
That severe storm entering Washington County was missing…
NAM 3 Km Model Also WAS Missing
Doppler Radar Recap Loop 3 AM to 4:50 AM
5 AM SNAPSHOT
This will reach Baltimore’s Beltway by 6 AM and may prompt warnings to be issued.
Live Radar and Lightning: Interactive Map
Radar Forecast Animation
NAM 3 Km Model
Since the HRRR is not handling this well, we switch to the NAM 3Km, but this is also not perfect…
6 AM to 4 PM
This is rough gauge, but I believe the activity will be faster and more widespread than shown…
Take Away
- Severe Warnings Are Likely!
- Timing: Even with the early leading edge, the main event will be 8 AM to 12 PM
- Damaging Winds are the most likely element this morning.
- Local Flooding with heavy downpours
- Dangerous Lightning has already been identical on Radar
- An Isolated Tornado is possible
Is This A Derecho?
Not necessarily, and there is no such thing as a Derecho Watch. It is a term that classifies a rare event, and is a buzz word that gets a lot of attention.
We can have an MCC complex produce lots of damage without being labeled a Derecho- which is classified when 240 miles of continuous wind damage path, 60 miles wide, with a minimum of 58 mph winds. Often exceeding 70 mph. These produce straight line winds over a large area rather than a confined tornado path.
Next Update:
I will aim to get a new update and timeline posted around 6:30 AM Tuesday to stay ahead of any adjustments to the timing and track.
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*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
