Thursday Evening Update
There has been an uptick in questions for this weekend’s weather. From weddings, birthday parties, ballgames, and the Thunderbirds Air Show in Ocean City. So, I wanted to share what might be a little good news. All week it has looked wet, but I tried to give the hint that it still might not be a washout.
The other thing this time of year is that an organized storm system is hard to point out a week away different energy than we deal with in winter events.
While there still will be some rain ‘likely’ on Saturday, I do believe there is an opening to be optimistic about. Among your variety of plans, it is my son’s last scheduled baseball game of the season, so we have been anxious to get it going as well.
We still will have a cool trough, which itself means unsettled weather.
There bright side: If you remember the short wave I pointed out a few days ago… Well, that seems to have been lost, or flattened out.
The is the piece that would have created an organized Low Pressure and more rain.
Without that ‘sort wave’, there will be less organization. The atmosphere will still be unsettled with more clouds and scattered showers. The good news is that leaves the opening for breaks of dry hours.
As we can see here, there is projected rain, but not very well organized. That makes it difficult to say who will get hit or miss it, but it does provide reason to be more optimistic than the look two days ago.
At this point, it looks like a band of rain in the morning, followed by scattered showers during the day… But that will not be well defined. If you recall the short range severe weather on Wednesday, the models had a tough time locating where the 2” to 3”+ rain would line up… So even hard to declare where it may be with less intense rain on Saturday.
Here’s a suggestion from the GFS Model:
Saturday Morning
Saturday Afternoon
Saturday Evening
Due to the trough, it should be cooler than average. However, if there is any additional sun, that could boost temps a little higher…
A but more like early summer…
The end of the weekend has always been expected to be warmer and dryer. There still may be some showers or thunderstorms arriving from the mountains late in the afternoon and evening.
Paul McCartney will be playing at Camden Yards: Show time at 8 PM. There is a small chance one of those showers gets close… but the set up often splits across the city. I will be watching it for you.
I can not rule out showers on Saturday. But the odds are about 40%. That does mean 60% chance it stays dry.
Sunday should be a much easier weather day. Those showers I mentioned before should remain west and north of the cities.
A more detailed weather timeline will be in my Friday morning report.
NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again
NOAA Study: Reducing Air Pollution INCREASED Tropical Storms
Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days
May 16 Large Hail Videos And Storm Tracking Map
*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
