Soggy Saturday Update: Rain Timeline Through Preakness In Baltimore
Friday, May 17, 2024 As we approach another weekend, we have yet another weather system bringing us rain. This will make 16 of 20 weekends this year with some wet…
Monday June 6 Evening Update
After a few nearly perfect weather days, the reality check is about to be cashed. However, that does not mean a full out washout. I understand seeing that little raindrop or lightning bolt graphic on your weather app can be deceiving.
After enjoying the afternoon and evening outside with my kids, I saw a lot of messages from people asking about various events planned this week:
- Tuesday: Outside Party
- Wednesday: Either a party or a rain date for Tuesday
- Saturday: Baseball games and Weddings.
Here’s a quick look at what I am seeing now, and what I will expand on in my full report in the morning.
Monday Evening Surface Weather
High Pressure has been in control, providing that deep blue sky.
A few lines of thunderstorms are showing up across the Ohio Valley, ahead of a cold front approaching Chicago.
The leading edge cirrus clouds you nay have see approach this evening. This clouds will spread in overnight.
Satelite Loop: 6 PM to 8:30 PM
Visible Sandwich Mode
Higher cloud tops are color enhanced.
Radar Simulation: Tuesday 8 AM to Midnight
This is the NAM 3 Km Model showing the few rounds of showers. They will reach metro areas mainly in the afternoon and evening…
Snapshots
These are NOT EXACT! This I suggestion from the simulation. The HRRR Model will be available for a closer look in my morning report.
Tuesday Afternoon
Tuesday Evening
Looking Ahead to Wednesday
At this point, most of the day looks quiet. The rain and storms will develop in Southern Maryland late in the day and at night. That will spread north overnight and likely be moving away Thursday morning..
Weekend Outlook
This is not looking so good. At least for Saturday.
Jet Stream
A large tough/cool pool of air will be swinging through our region. This is the type of pattern that can produce Low Pressure with a broad field of rain that can last a day.
ECMWF Model Saturday 2 AM to 8 PM
This continues to show that developing Low Pressure, with a track through our region and keeping most of the day Saturday cool and rainy. This will be moving away on Sunday.
My Thoughts:
If you have little kids outside late Tuesday afternoon or evening, just make sure you can round them up to head indoors IF NEED BE. Wednesday should be OK, until the evening in Southern MD….
As for the weekend, I have seen this jet stream set up for a few days. It has been consistent, which is not what you may want to hear. There is still time for some adjustment, but unless there is a major change, you ay want to consider your Plan B for Saturday’s events.
I will have my next full report ready in the morning.
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*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
