October 16 Weather Still Chilly And Another Storm Next Weekend

October 16, 2023

Monday Morning Update

We remain under the influence of a dominant cool pattern. Temperatures will remain below average helping to accelerate the color change in the leaves.

A few light rain showers could develop in the afternoon, then we shift our focus to two sunny and warmer days midweek.  The rain pattern may repeat with yet another storm at the end of the week. This is expected to arrive on Friday, then keep us with the risk of rain through the weekend.

Morning Surface Weather

The old storm is well off the coast and there is nothing organized in place. There is however an upper-level wind flow of unstable air across the Great Lakes. So we have a chilly start and it will remain cool all day. Some rain showers will drop south during the afternoon.

High Pressure with a few sunny and warmer days will move in midweek.

Morning Temperatures

Wind Forecast: 8 AM to 8 PM

The airflow will be from the North averaging around 10 to 15 mph.

Radar Simulation: 8 AM to 8 PM

Snapshot at 4 PM

A few rain showers will arrive from southern PA into North Central Maryland during the mid to late afternoon.

Temperatures

It will be a chilly afternoon with most areas remaining in the upper 50s to near 60ºF.

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CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY October 16

Sunrise at 7:17 AM

Sunset at 6:27 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  46ºF

Record 30ºF in 1876

Normal High in Baltimore: 68ºF

Record 90ºF 1897

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Temperatures Tuesday

Still chilly but modifying a little.

Morning

Afternoon

Next Storm: GFS Model Friday Afternoon to Sunday Afternoon

The next developing storm seems to fit the same pattern as the last few weeks. This time the rain may arrive late Friday and into Saturday morning. This may be followed by a second system on Sunday. In between it is possible there may be a break on Saturday afternoon.

Friday Evening

This storm looks like it may arrive with the bulk of rain on Friday, which could depart Saturday morning.

Snapshot Sunday

An upper-level quick-moving Low, looking like a Clipper, may race through with a second push of rain.

Looking Ahead: Cold Pattern

Jet Stream Monday To Sunday

The upper air pattern is seen to relax and warm mid-week, then we turn colder again. After the next storm, a deep trough will dig and reload across the Eastern US. This seems to confirm a repeating pattern and dominant flow that we can expect to continue at least for the next few weeks. It might suggest a setup into the winter as well.

7 Day Forecast

The two nice days this week look like Wednesday and Thursday. While remaining warm on Friday, that is when rain from the next storm is expected to arrive. The entire weekend may not be a complete washout, but we will have the risk of rain through Sunday.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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