NOAA Temperature Outlook Shows Locked Pattern And When It May Finally Break

Monday February 13 2023

This is not the outlook for us snow lovers, but I know it has made many people happy.  I married a beach girl, so within my snowless misery, a happy wife does help with the rest of life…. I guess.

I will not get into the specifics of this non winter for us, but it has remained a cold and stormy winter for the western US. It has been a rare pattern, but it has happened a handful of times in the weather records.

The question I have been getting most: Is winter just done? In all actuality we could ask if winter ever started for us.  While there have been many failed attempts to generate a snow storm, we have had a few noted Polar Vortex events that were both advertised and materialized. The thing is that the cold never held for more than a day or two.

Temperature averages per month so far this winter with reference to Baltimore:

• December -1.1ºF
• January +9.6ºF
• February +5.2ºF (first 12 days)

Looking Ahead, the NOAA Outlook shows more of the same… with a change at the end of the month. How many times have we had that dangling carrot 2 weeks away. I hear you and I feel your pain as well.

Outlook Days 6 to 10: February 19 to 23

More of the same, right? Warm in the East and “winter is best in the West”.

Jet Stream Forecast Feb 14 to 23

This animation helps show how persistent the cold and stormy pattern has been in the western US. Then just falls apart in the East as a persistent Ridge continues to dominate our upper air flow.

Outlook Days 8 to 14: February 21 to 27

There is a signal of a much colder surge for the western US. Sadly, this not only means more snow well west, but also more severe storm outbreaks for the deep south and lower Mississippi River Valley.

Outlook Week 3 and 4: February 25 to March 10

I have been saying the end of winter would turn colder, but this late is ridiculous.

La Niña will be ending and we cannot remain in this pattern forever. If we begin to transition to seasonal or colder weather at this point, I once again must suggest our spring will be like the last few springs and trend cooler. The pattern we would want in winter is not helpful in March and April.

What Does This Translate To?

This temperature outlook from the GFS Model is hardly hinting at winter for the next 10 days.

There is a long range drop, but the farther out in time, the less precise any forecast can be.

The suggestion is a trend to colder weather for the end of the month with an arctic surge at the end of the month that again does not seem to last more than a day.

Will We Complete A Winter Without Winter?

Winters With Under 5 Inches Of Snow

There are 13 winters, with the earliest dating back to 1989 to 1890. The most recent was 2019 to 2020.

1 Winter UNDER 1” = 1949 to 1950

3 Winters UNDER 2” = 1972 to 1973; 2011 to 2012; AND 2019 to 2020.

My story of Faith in the Flakes began with my son back in 2009.  It is a universal message for hope in life as much as our desire to get some wintry weather. There is still time for something to happen. But at this point I must be honest and say it’s looking bleak!

At least for most of the next two weeks.   

At least we have mitigated our energy bills, right?

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

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STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

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My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/20/atmospheric-memory-suggests-active-winter-storm-pattern-outlook/

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/28/winter-weather-folklore-top-20-and-more-outlook-signals-from-nature-for-cold-and-snow/

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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