February 14 2023
Tuesday Morning
Today is Love Day in the middle of Love Week as my wife calls it. I know she, along with many others are loving this weather, and here we go again! There is hardly any cold air in sight in this winter without a winter (for us).
Valentine’s Day will be sunny and mild, then we crank up the warmth ahead of another strong storm tracking well to our west. This is a case where we could overshoot the forecast high, which is why I am calling for a good chance to reach 70ºF at BWI tomorrow. That will not be a record, which was 77ºF in 1949, but it may feel like it. Then we get a couple of days with rain to end the work week.
Many of these readings are close to a normal high for the date, but showing up before sunrise.
There are a few pockets of lower 30s, so you might find frost on the windshield in those areas.
High Pressure has most of the Eastern US under a clear sky with light wind. The breeze will pick up and shift from the South ahead of the next storm. That will be our warming trend.
That storm will bring snow to the Northern Plains and an outbreak of severe weather across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys tomorrow and Thursday.
Most of the region will be back into the 50s.
TODAY February 14
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record -2ºF in 1979
SNOW: 4.0” in 1986
Normal High in Baltimore: 46ºF
Record 70ºF 1990
Most areas will be near normal afternoon (!) highs before sunrise.
There is not much to say other than the storm track is proving a locked in atmospheric memory pattern: Through the Great Lakes.
This is what will pump in the warmer air for us, followed by a brief chill.
The wind flow aloft shows the warm East and colder West! When we get some chill, it does not last long. Temps will be falling all Friday, then bottom out on Saturday, only to bounce back with more mild air on Sunday.
This is the theme we have had this winter. There is plenty of cold air, it just is having trouble getting here. Once it does, it does not stay long.
Warm AGAIN for the next 10 days… Then we may break this non-winter pattern by the end of the month.
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The rain storm could bring some thunder Thursday night into Friday morning. Then temps will be much colder. Friday’s high will be in the morning, then temps will fall all day.
The weekend will be colder, but once again that cold winter ‘near normal’ only lasts about 1 day!
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
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I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/
