February 7 Warming Up To Rain Events And Open Mind For This Weekend

February 7, 2023

Tuesday Morning

We are turning the corner again and shifting the winds from the south. While we wake up with cold air and widespread frost, winds from the south will bring back above-average temperatures.

The theme of the week, and next week for that matter, will be warmer than average. Winter does seem to be missing.  There is one blip with the upper-level pattern that keeps this weekend in play for a brief coastal event. The modeling has been poor in handling most weather events lately. The European and GFS appear to be on a daily handoff between which one tries to produce snow. All I can suggest is to keep an open mind for the weekend.

Morning Surface Weather

We have a dirty High in the Eastern US. This simply means plenty of cloud cover within the dry air mass. Winds will pivot to the south today, starting the warming trend.

Morning Temperatures

Frost may be a little extra thick this morning, so consider some extra time to warm up your vehicle to thaw or time to scrape.

Afternoon Temperatures

Near to slightly above average. However, there will be a noticeable wind to keep some chill in the air.

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY February 7

Normal Low in Baltimore:  26ºF

Record 6ºF in 1895

SNOW: 6.3” 1974

Normal High in Baltimore: 45ºF

Record 72ºF 2017

Tuesday Night  To Wednesday Afternoon

This cold front will be falling apart. We may see some rain showers, but more likely on the north side of Baltimore.

Wednesday Morning Temperatures

Not as cold.

Wednesday  Afternoon Temperatures

Many will aim for the lower 50s. The 60s will be on display in central Virginia.

Rain Events: Thursday Through Saturday

ECWMF Model

This shows the split of rain showers breaking up on Thursday, then more focused on Friday. This second system will be mainly in our southern areas.  Then the questionable weekend weather. At this point, we see this model fading away that upper-level energy.

Snow? Weekend Snapshot

The tradeoff continues, this time with the GFS Model taking the baton.

Close Up (GFS)

Storm Animation Saturday Morning to Monday Morning

This close up of the GFS Model shows the developing Low producing its own cold air. This is that upper-level Low helping to enhance the precipitation and transition rain to a wet snow.

Considering that the main models have been showing something for more than four straight days, I ask you to keep an open mind. The models have not been handling this winter well, and can’t seem to agree, but the signal is there, and the specifics get refined as we get closer.

Jet Stream Saturday

This upper-level air flow shows a closed Low over the Mid-Atlantic coast within a warm pattern. This is the reason why one little system can generate its own cold air.

7 Day Forecast

Overall we have a mild weather pattern. But it is possible to get snow, if that upper-level closed Low plays out. It is also possible to get snow even if the daily high is above freezing.  That is what we see here, and what you may be seeing on your weather app.

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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