January 20 Windy With Mountain Snow Then Sunday Storm Starting Mix

January 20 2023

Friday Morning Report

The wind behind this latest storm is going to be the main story. Areas of thick fog may greet you to start the day, but the wind will dry us out and become gusty!

Those same winds are bringing snow into the mountains, where a fresh accumulation will help ski areas but may also affect travel.

We have our sights on Sunday afternoon when the next event could begin with snow or mix inland, then transition to rain. While not a big deal for us, it is the start of the change we’ve been expecting.

Headlines

• Today: Windy for all, Snow For Western Mountains.
• Sunday: Starting with snowy mix inland, rain near main cities and Bay.
• Wednesday: Another Storm May Start With Snow/Mix Turning To Rain

Morning Temperatures

Morning Surface Weather

Gusty winds will be building as colder air spills in. This has already developed bands of snow off the Great Lakes. This will be enhanced by the mountains all the way to western Maryland.

Wind Forecast: 7 AM to 7 PM

Strong winds will average 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts.

Radar Simulation: 7 AM FRI to 7 AM SAT

The patches of blue are Upslope Snow. We often refer to this as Lake Enhanced because it is moisture from Lake Erie. But it is helped by the rise in the elevation with the peaks or spines of the Appalachian Mountains that run through western Maryland.  This dumps on Garrett County, but as the same wind rolls through lower elevations to the east, the snow cuts off.

Live Snow Cam: McHenry, MD

Snow Forecast a Wisp: 1 to 3 inches.

3 PM Temperatures

It will feel 5 to 10 degrees colder with the winds.

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY January 20

Normal Low in Baltimore:  25ºF

Record -3ºF in 1985

SNOW: 5.7” 2000

Normal High in Baltimore: 43ºF

Record 71ºF 1951

Saturday

Gusty winds (10 to 20 mph) in the morning to midday, then easing in the afternoon.

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Scanning Next Storms

There has been a data disruption so these maps are from my report last night.  I will have an update today with fresh material.

Large View:

ECMWF Model 7 AM Sun Jan 22 to 7 AM Wed Jan 25

Each model update is trending colder and farther east with the first Surface Low Sunday into Monday. The second Low may track farther west.. But I do NOT trust the modeling at this time and expect further adjustments.

Closer Look: Sunday Afternoon to Monday Night

Snapshots: Suggestions

7 PM Sunday

This is a 6 hour summary of precipitation. We can expect light snow or mix north and west of the Washington and Baltimore Beltway’s after 2 PM.  Snow more likely farther west, but near I-95 and by the Bay any brief initial flakes or sleet pellets will change to rain.

Temperatures

The Freezing Air is isolated in the higher mountains west of I-81 and in the Poconos/Catskill Mountains.

The mid 30s even in southern PA suggests snow will be slushy at best and roads will be wet.  There may be some stickage, but more likely on the grass.

Canadian GEM Model

The orange shading for the Baltimore inland suburbs is a more practical representation of the icy/slushy mix.  The snow is more likely north of the Pennsylvania line. Still of the slushy variety.

GFS Model

This plot was the warmest, and has trended colder to catch up to the others. We still have a similar set up, just additional support for snowflakes ‘falling’ inland Northwest of Baltimore.

Rain is the likely result around the metro and Bay areas.

Back to the ECMWF Model….

1 AM Monday

We see the rain pushing up to Harrisburg in PA. Still a slushy wet snow in central PA and north.

10 AM Monday

The newer development here is the wrap around snow, under the influence of the colder air aloft. This is interesting with moderate snow dropping back down into Maryland.

I need to point out that the cold air is still missing.  If there is any stickage, it would be in the higher elevations and still more likely on the grass with wet roads.

Second Event

Wednesday Afternoon

The next feature that follows does show a start with snow, then a transition to rain with an inland track. However, I believe the actual result of the Monday storm position could influence this one.  Should that deepen and close off near Nova Scotia, it may hold our cold longer and make that mid week event more interesting with snow and ice.  I am keeping an open mind on this one.

7 Day Forecast

We are in a pattern change with storm tracks. That exception is showing up, but the truly cold arctic air is missing for now.  There is colder air on the way, but these inland mix events is what we get with this initial round this week.

Looking Ahead: Jet Stream

Monday January 23 to Sunday January 29

The only thing I want to highlight with this loop is the pattern change. Here it is. As the trough builds mid week with the second storm, the trend to much colder air will flow in through next weekend.

There is some debate as to whether this will hold or retreat into February. I am not there yet. Given the flaws we’ve seen all winter, I am focused on the short term block until we can establish some normalcy.

If you want winter, it is finally showing up. Will it produce snow?  The next two weeks will tell the story. This is our window of opportunity. Faith in the Flakes.

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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