Tuesday, December 13 2022

Our first winter event of the season is expected to arrive on Thursday morning. In the previous days, I have highlighted that this is most likely to be a freezing rain, to rain event for most of our region. Then on Monday, the GFS went colder and added some snow to the mix. The local National Weather Service offices bit on that, perhaps because it is from the American-funded model, which just had an expensive upgrade.

Whatever the reason, we continue to examine multiple models and will try to come up with the best solution for what you may get. I say we, because you see my forecasts here, but other meteorologists and The National Weather Service have their expectations plotted as well. Some are similar, but not always the same.

Since I am expecting little snow and more icing, I felt this was a safe time to show the maps and explain the detail without too much misleading info. I want to explain what you are seeing or have seen others post. 

Let’s explore the Maryland maps so I can explain a few things. These forecasts are from Tuesday morning, Dec 13.

From National Weather Service in Sterling, VA

Official Snow Forecast

This shows a broad area for <1” UNDER ONE INCH

However, OVER 1 inch near Westminster, Frederick, Hagerstown, and Cumberland.

Please keep scrolling

National Weather Service in Sterling, VA

Percent Chance Over 1”

This is where we look at that 1” snow forecast for Westminster, and on this map, it has only around a 10% chance to get there. Huh?

Hagerstown up to 32%

While Cumberland in the 1” to 2” forecast has a 50% chance.

These are hardly a promise and can be confusing.

National Weather Service in Sterling, VA

Percent Chance Over 0.1” (a Trace)

This shows a much larger area with a coating of snow, which ironically is 50% in Annapolis and 75% in Dunkirk, but 31% from Baltimore to Bel Air.  That may be a function of the arrival time and mixing with water air at moderate levels from the Chesapeake  Bay.

Westminster, Frederick, and points west and north are more likely (from NWS) to get a coating of snow before the icing.

Speaking Of Ice: Based on Sleet and Freezing Rain

A broad area of up to 0.1” (a tenth of an inch). Not a full ice storm but a glaze that can affect traffic in the morning. 

There will be a better chance of extensive ice problems and maybe tree/power line concerns between Cumberland, Frostburg, and Garrett County. 

I will have a new update on the winter event this afternoon.

More Maps and Links

Out of respect, I have added National Weather Service winter maps to a page on my website you can easily access. 

Also, I wanted to add links to regional offices for even more maps you can explore. They include:

Central Pennsylvania: From NWS State College

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/winter

Metro Philadelphia, NJ, and all of Delaware: From NWS Mount Holly, NJ

https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

Most of Maryland Maryland, Northern Virginia, and parts of West Virginia: From NWS Sterling VA

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter

My Morning Forecast 

December 13 Weather Cold Days Leading Up To Thursday Morning Ice Event

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

Faith in the Flakes Gear

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

STEM Assemblies/In-School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

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