December 13 2022

Tuesday Morning Update 

A cold air mass has settled in and the next few mornings will help set the stage for chilling the ground in preparation for the icy zones.  As we talk about the winter event on the way, it is important to highlight that it will not impact our entire region the same, but there is high confidence that there will be freezing rain and or sleet starting Thursday.

What will follow will be the pattern change. Some snow flurries and colder winds over the weekend, then much colder air arrives Christmas Week. 

Morning Temperatures

Just a suggestion: The areas below freezing this morning are the places to be concerned for icy impact on Thursday morning.

Headlines

Today: Sunny and Cold

Storm Thursday: Icy Mix should begin before sunrise

Christmas Week: Arctic Air Will Make A Move

Morning Surface Weather

Winter Storm DEVELOPING across the central US. That is what will reach us by Thursday…. Until then: Simply cold and dry with sun and high clouds.

Afternoon Temperatures  

These are below average and will feel colder with increasing clouds. 

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY December 13

Normal Low in Baltimore:  30ºF

Record 8ºF in 1960

SNOW: 7.6 inches in 1966

Normal High in Baltimore: 48ºF

Record 72ºF 2015

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NEW REPORT

Winter Perspective: Arctic Air Christmas Week

Ice And Rain Event Then Arctic Air Makes A Move Before Christmas

Wednesday Temperatures 

Morning 

Cold start under a clear sky, there may be some local spots much colder than shown here. 

Afternoon

Increasing high clouds will dim the sun ahead of the storm.

Winter Event Starting Thursday December 15

Model Comparison 

The trend I have seen since yesterday has been more in agreement with both the start time and precipitation type. At this point it looks like this: 

Thursday Morning

The good news in the agreement is that we will get a wintry mix, AND it will arrive before sunrise. This may help you plan ahead for school openings and travel. 

• Pink: Freezing Rain
• Orange: Slushy Mix
• Blue: Snow
• Green: Rain

Thursday Morning Temperatures 

While sleet and freezing rain may be falling, the ground temperatures will determine if the surface will turn wet or icy…

First ‘Guess’ Of Road Impact

This is the map I proposed yesterday. I will adjust this today as I think there may be more of Harford and Cecil County affected. Please check back later this morning.

Thursday Afternoon

This is the tricky part because the models handle the cold air and storm track differently. The GFS is still trying to turn to snow and hold that in the northern zones, while the Canadian Model holds the ice/freezing rain in our colder zones, and the European Model pushes the warmer air to the Pennsylvania line.

Storm Animations 

GFS Model:

This is the colder solution and I am not sold on the snow part yet. At least with the suggestion NWS has for some accumulation.

Canadian Model:

I am still partial to this solution with more impact from freezing rain to last into early afternoon for the colder inland zones.

After This…

Weekend Jet Stream: Vorticity

This is the spin aloft that can support additional showers. 

Saturday Afternoon: 

I see a jet streak and Vort Max swinging through that may support a band of snow showers or flurries. This may repeat on Sunday as well. 

Faith in the Flakes. 

7 Day Forecast

Temps remain below average and the mother load of cold air may make a move just after this period and ahead of Christmas. With that I see two more attempts for snow or mix before Christmas, so it will remain active. 

Faith in the Flakes Gear

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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