November 29, 2022

Tuesday Morning Update 

There are two severe storm seasons in the US. The first is in Spring, the second in Autumn. Today will represent that second round with a surge of warm air battling the oncoming winter air mass, and they will meet up across the lower Mississippi River Valley. The net result may be a tornado outbreak.

The concern is that the remaining energy, although weakening, will reach us tomorrow. We will get morning rain, then very strong winds in the afternoon. Gusts over 50 mph in parts of our region are possible. 

Severe Storm Risk

Moderate Risk (Level 4 of 5) = Red

Enhanced Risk (Level 3) = Orange

Slight Risk (Level 2) = Yellow

Central Mississippi is at the highest risk for supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes. 

Morning Surface Weather

High is Dry! That big blue H is High Pressure and is in control of the Eastern US. 

A band of snow has developed from Denver to Minneapolis on the arctic side of the pattern. 

To the South: Storms are expected to erupt with afternoon heating as new Low-Pressure forms. 

Storm Tracking: Tuesday Morning To Thursday Morning

Afternoon Temperatures

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY November 29

Normal Low in Baltimore:  33ºF

Record 13ºF in 1955

SNOW: 1.0 inches in 1952

Normal High in Baltimore: 52ºF

Record 74ºF 1927

NEW REPORTS:

Record Snow Cover Across The Northern Hemisphere

December Pattern Change

How The Winter Weather Pattern May Develop In Early December

Wednesday 

• Rain will develop in the morning during the commute. Most of the region should see it arrive between 6 AM and 8 AM.
• Rain will break up to showers in the afternoon.
• Winds: Increase in the afternoon!

Radar Simulation: 

NAM 3 Km: 5 AM to 5 PM

Wind Forecast

6 AM to 8 PM

• Morning: Winds from the south
• Afternoon: Winds (stronger) from the west/northwest

Wind Gusts

I expect Wind Advisories may be issued today (for tomorrow).

Peak gusts near and north of Baltimore may exceed 50 mph!

Morning Temperatures 

Afternoon Temperatures

Cooling down behind the rain

7 Day Forecast

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Faith in the Flakes Gear

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

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