January 10 Winter Weather Advisory Overnight For Southern Maryland
January 10 2025 Friday Morning Report As we track this southern winter storm, the impact for our region will be more in the southern portion. We all will get light…
June 11 Weather Tracking Morning Rain And Sunday Afternoon Storms
Maryland Weather
climate data
rain timeline
Forecast
June 11 2022
Saturday Morning Report
At first glance, the weather today may not look great. This is what we have been discussing for a while. This is the validation of my ‘rain likely’, and also ‘morning rain’.
The questions now shifts to timing and can we get dry breaks for your plans this afternoon. There are also those in Ocean City for the Thunderbirds Air Show. I have a look at that too.
There are quite a few tools I use to make my forecast, beyond the models I show and don’t show in these reports. But what I have on display is the best performing model I have identified, yet it is still not perfect. So, we still need to use this with a grain of salt.
Morning Set Up
Surface Weather
Here is our rain maker, which is missing an organized Low Pressure. That is why it is expected to break up across the mountains… but the atmosphere will remain unsettled.
Doppler Radar at 7 AM
I made this snapshot to compare with the forecast below. Rain had already reached metro Baltimore and the central Chesapeake Bay. There are some heavier bands in the mountains. This will provide us with more rain through mid day…
Radar Simulation at 7 AM
This NAM 3Km Model has been the best performer, and yet was still wrong. The leading edge of rain appeared to be about 1 hour late.
Snapshots:
2 PM – This shows the end of the rain passing through and to the east of Baltimore at this time… But it my be faster than shown here. I am suggesting about 1 hour earlier…
Ocean City: The Air Show ceremonies begin at 11:30 AM with flights through 3:30 PM. At this time, it is looking OK.
8 PM – Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. The locations here are a suggestion and not perfect. The suggestion is also more likely near and south of the Bay Bridge/Rt 50.
Radar Recap: Last 2 Hours (will update)
Showing Last 2 Radar map data
Last 2
Temperature Forecast
Afternoon
CLIMATE DATA
TODAY June 11th
Normal Low in Baltimore: 61ºF
Record 40ºF in 1972
Normal High in Baltimore: 82ºF
Record 99ºF 1911
Sunday Simulation: Sat 6 AM to Sun 10 PM
NAM 3 Km Model
This shows some morning showers…
Mainly rain and storms develop northern half of our region close to noon…
Then wide spreads thunderstorms into the afternoon and evening.
*Paul McCartney Concert at Camden Yards: There may be some showers… Can’t rule them out, but not a washout.
Sunday Temperatures
Morning
Afternoon
How warm will depend on how much sun can break out before the rain develops.
It will be noticeable cooler under the rainier northern half…
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Monday Morning to Wednesday Evening
ECWMF:
A main cluster of storms that may turn severe will be needed to watch for Tuesday.
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7 Day Forecast
The next focus will be on Tuesday for a larger complex of storms..
Summer heat returns by the end of next week.
Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30
NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again
Forecast From Colorado State University
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Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist
Twitter: @JustinWeather
Instagram: justinweather
*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
