Southern Winter Storm And My First Call For Local Snowfall This Saturday
Thursday Afternoon Update January 8 2025 The next winter weather event is going to produce a band of snow and ice across tracking eastward across the US. This track is…
January 12 Storm Tonight Brings Flooding On The Bay And From Rain Plus Strong Winds
Flooding
Maryland Weather
climate data
Severe Weather
Warnings
January 12, 2024
Friday Morning Update
The storm will arrive tonight. This will bring rain and strong winds after dark into our region. It looks very similar to the storm we had on Tuesday, perhaps not as strong.
However, there has been a weakening with soggy soil and flood-prone areas that will get hit again, and it will not take as much force to have an impact.
A Coastal Flood Warning has already been posted for places like Annapolis again. Forecast water rise may be between 3.5 Ft and close to 5 Feet again!
The squall line will arrive within an hour or two of midnight.
Colder winds from the West will arrive Saturday, then we watch for ‘potential’ snow next week as the arctic blast settles in.
Flood Alerts
Coastal Flooding is likely!
Rain Forecast
River Flood Forecast at Annapolis
Rain Forecast:
Annapolis Docks expected to breach 3.5 Ft; This is the Severn River rise peaking before sunrise Saturday with high tide.
Wind Alerts
Wind Forecast
Peak Winds: Just Before Midnight
Current Set Up
Morning Surface Weather
The storm is taking form in the Midwest. Heavy snow is falling over Chicago, and some areas may see blizzard conditions… So airline travel may be affected by what is happening there even though we have a quiet start to the day.
Storm Forecast: Friday Night To Saturday Afternoon
Local Radar Simulation
7 PM Friday to 7 PM Saturday
Snapshot Tonight
The squall line may arrive one to two hours earlier again.
Temperatures will be rising as the squall line approaches by midnight.
Afternoon
Tonight
CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore
TODAY January 12
Sunrise at 7:26 AM
Sunset at 5:03 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record 1ºF in 1981
Normal High in Baltimore: 43ºF
Record 70ºF 1890
Saturday Weather
The storm will be over in the morning… Leaving windy conditions behind all day. Gusts may still reach over 40 mph.
Snow will return to Western Maryland.
Temperatures Morning
Temperatures Afternoon
Snow Next Week?
The GFS Model is still showing the energy coming together, but has shifted the event timing to later Tuesday into Wednesday.
The European Model has lost this storm all together.
Recent events have leaned towards the GFS in the mid-range, but the European in the short term. We are in the range where models often get confused and need to wait until the energy is IN THE GRID. That should come in to better focus in another day.
Animation from the GFS Model
Tuesday Morning to Wednesday Afternoon
Animation from ECMWF Model
Tuesday Morning to Wednesday Morning
This model has lost the storm by NOT bringing the upper-level energy together.
7 Day Forecast
I am keeping that snow risk at 50% until the modeling can get more in agreement.
The arctic blast has shown up on all models.
These numbers represent Baltimore at BWI. It will be colder inland…. And there have been some suggestions for even colder temps during this stretch. We would need snow on the ground to assist.
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RECENT Winter Outlook Reports:
My Winter Outlook: More Snow
El Niño Winter Updates
Late November: Warm Water Shifts West In Pacific Could Mean More Snow For Eastern US
Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.
Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.
Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow
Explore More
Maryland Snow Climate History And Other Winter Pages
Faith in the Flakes Gear
STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back
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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
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