October 15 Chilly Pattern And Maybe Rain Repeat Plus Solar Eclipse Photos

October 15, 2023

Sunday Morning Update

The weather this weekend may not have worked out for your event, but it did play out as expected. That rain on Saturday rolled in during the morning and held temperatures in Baltimore at only 60ºF. The rain total was 0.73”, justifying it as a Soggy Saturday.

We may do it again next weekend. But in between the focus will be on the cooler-than-average temperatures, which may be another pattern setting up with persistence. But before we dive in, I’d like to show this collection of photos of the Annular Solar Eclipse.

Ring Of Fire Solar Eclipse:

Here we can see some sun spots during the transit of the moon.

• Location: Klamath Falls, OR
• Thanks to Jennifer Hutchinson and her son Jon for these amazing photos.

Morning Surface Weather

The storm system from yesterday intensified off the coast. That potent circulation will work with the broader pattern to help increase winds from the north. This will keep us in a healthy mix of clouds for a few days. The chance of rain will be lower today and then increase on Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

Wind Forecast: 8 AM to 8 PM

Snapshot at Noon

Winds will push from the North at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph.

Temperatures

I’ve looked over many model plots and it is safe to say MOST of the region will get stuck in the 50s. You might be in a lucky area with some more peaks of sun but will still barely top the 60ºF mark.

More Info: Ring Of Fire Solar Eclipse Saturday October 13

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY October 15

Sunrise at 7:16 AM

Sunset at 6:28 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  48ºF

Record 32ºF in 2006

Normal High in Baltimore: 69ºF

Record 86ºF 1975; 1989

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Temperatures Monday

The wind and cloud cover may limit how cold it may drop overnight but also hold back the push upwards in the afternoon.

Morning

Afternoon

GFS Model Monday to Wednesday

The cool and unsettled upper air flow will tap into the Great Lakes and produce periodic rain showers. This will likely peak on Tuesday, then relax and clear us out on Wednesday.

Next Storm

Thursday to Saturday

This looks like a repeat of what we just experienced…

Snapshot Saturday

Both the weather pattern and timing. However, this may arrive earlier in the day next Saturday.

Looking Ahead: Cold Pattern

I keep seeing this trend… Following the next storm, the jet stream will dig in a deep trough and close off an upper-level low over the Eastern US. So following this storm, there is a very pronounced cold pattern set to settle in the Eastern US.

Monday Afternoon to Sunday Afternoon

A large deep trough reinforces itself across the Eastern US.  This will bring yet another push of colder-than-average temperatures resulting in a feel that is about one month ahead of time.

Snapshot Next Sunday

7 Day Forecast

There is definitely a signal to the colder side in our extended forecast. The mildest day of the week may just get back close to 70ºF on Thursday. Then yet another rain event for yet another weekend. I kept the chance on Saturday to 60% given the span of time in between and some wiggle room for adjusting the arrival and intensity of that rain.

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Aurora Photos From Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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