October 13, 2023
Friday Morning Update
It appears we will continue with the pattern for storm systems on the weekend. While today will continue with our nice weather, the next storm will arrive on Saturday. There is a challenge timing the rain for the number of outdoor events, but we have a handle on the afternoon turning soggy. We will explore the morning timing below.
The other downside, which has been expected, is that the solar eclipse in the afternoon will be blocked by clouds. Our region is in the partial coverage zone with 30% coverage and would be hardly noticeable. I do have more info on that and links to view online.
The next storm is taking form. We are still under the influence of a dry air mass, but the Low Pressure in the Northern Plains will expand east. An old frontal boundary will be the focus for clouds and rain to expand east… but timing how far and fast is the challenge with our forecast early Saturday.
Another pleasant afternoon with sunshine, but a little cooler than yesterday.
CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore
TODAY October 13
Sunrise at 7:14 AM
Sunset at 6:31 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 48ºF
Record 32ºF in 1957, 1988, 2006
Normal High in Baltimore: 70ºF
Record 89ºF 1954
SATURDAY STORM
We know there will be a storm and it will turn rainy Saturday afternoon and night. The tough part is when it will start. We will explore below.
I will be with up to 5,000 cyclists in the Seagull Century on the 100-mile course between Salisbury University and Assateague Island that starts around sunrise. In Baltimore, there will be roughly 11,000 at the running festival, while northern Carroll County will be hosting the final River Valley Run. Horses will be racing in the Maryland Million at Laurel later in the morning.
The Running Festival and Seagull Century will be underway by this time. There may be hope for dry hours early in Baltimore and Salisbury.
A few showers are expected in northern Carroll County for River Valley Run (8 AM to 11 AM).
Adding to the mix is the Catoctin Colorfest Craft Festival in Thurmont and Garrett County hosts Autumn Glory in Oakland at 1 PM. It is likely to be wet as they begin the parade at 1 PM. It is the largest fall festival and I was honored to be Grand Marshall a few years ago.
There may not be much movement during the day.
Suggestion: Dry start for Baltimore and Salisbury. Some showers may reach northern Carroll Carroll County and southern PA. This rain is more likely in the mountains back to Oakland, MD.
This model is much more dry for the start of the day across most of our region.
Suggestion: This is also showing a dry start, however close scrutiny identifies some drizzle or spotty showers inland. The main rain should hold off for a few hours… See the timeline below.
Suggestion: Showers reach metro Baltimore with steady rain to the North AND West.
Suggestion: Soggy Afternoon. Rain will fill in for most of the region by this time.
Suggestion: The main event of moderate to heavy rain will be crossing central Maryland.
Rain showers will be the theme with the cooler air… More likely during the afternoons of Monday and Tuesday.
I still see this may be a trend into winter. Following this storm, the jet stream will try to dig in a deep trough and close off an upper-level low over the Eastern US.
Following this storm, there is a very pronounced cold pattern set to settle in the Eastern US.
We continue to see a deep trough across the Eastern US. This will keep our temps close to 15 degrees cooler than normal. The unsettled atmosphere will also come with more clouds and showers developing each afternoon.
This storm brings the bulk of the rain Saturday afternoon, ending Sunday morning. What will follow will be a chilly pattern that may bring more showers into Tuesday. With the new air mass, some mornings inland could approach frosty numbers.
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
#FITF
